The Fed, which has been unable to access critical data for a long time due to the US government shutdown, is preparing for its December decision.
While the FED’s actions are eagerly awaited under limited data, the FED is experiencing a major division within itself.
As you may recall, Wall Street Journal reporter Nick Timiraos, known as the Fed spokesman, recently noted that there was deepening disagreement within the Fed regarding the December interest rate cut. He also noted that such a level of division had never existed before during Jerome Powell’s nearly eight-year tenure.
While the market outlook for a December interest rate cut has remained uncertain for some time, according to CME FedWatch data, the probability of a December interest rate cut has exceeded 70 percent.
Accordingly, the probability that the FED will cut the policy rate by 25 basis points in December is priced in at 71.5%.
While New York Fed President John Williams stated that “there is room to further adjust interest rates in the short term,” economists also say that interest rate cuts are necessary.
FED Chair to Determine December Decision!
At this point, investment bank Barclays analysts stated that the Fed is likely to make an interest rate cut decision despite its internal divisions.
Barclays said Powell is likely to lead the rate cut move, even though Fed members appear divided ahead of the December decision.
Barclays said that based on recent statements, six Fed members with voting rights may choose to hold interest rates steady, while five may choose to cut them.
However, analysts argued that it would be very difficult for Fed members to publicly oppose Chairman Powell’s view and that Powell would ultimately dictate interest rate decisions.
As a result, Barclays analysts said Powell might be more likely to cut interest rates by 25 basis points.
He added that this situation could bring the recovery that Bitcoin needs.
Wells Fargo Chief Economist Tom Porcelli said the recent deterioration of the labor market provides a reasonable basis for a rate cut, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.4% in September, the highest level in nearly four years. At this point, Porcelli also indicated that a rate cut is more likely.
Nick Timiraos of the Wall Street Journal believes the Fed won’t cut interest rates “unless Powell forces it.”
*This is not investment advice.