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Bitcoin struggles despite 84% Fed rate-cut odds; short-term holders sell while long-term holders stay calm amid macro uncertainty.
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Rare USD signal and political Fed pressure add risk, keeping Bitcoin weak despite potential liquidity boost and rate-cut expectations.
Bitcoin Price is not reacting the way many investors expected, even though the chances of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December have increased sharply. Instead of moving higher, BTC Price is feeling pressure from a mix of macro uncertainty, on-chain signals, and shifting political dynamics.
Fed Rate-Cut Odds Rise, but Bitcoin Still Stays Weak
Prediction market data now shows an 84% probability of a rate cut on December 10, while January is likely to be a pause. Normally, this should help Bitcoin, but traders are now focusing on something more important: the Fed’s Next Move.
On October 29, the Fed cut rates but did not give strong forward guidance. Markets reacted weakly. The same may happen again in December, especially if this becomes the third straight rate cut, reducing the positive impact on risk assets like Bitcoin.
Rare U.S. Dollar Signal Flashes Not Good News for BTC
According to 10x Research Report, A rarely triggered U.S. dollar signal has just appeared, only the fifth time in Bitcoin’s entire history. Each previous time this signal flashed, Bitcoin saw noticeable downside soon after. This is creating additional pressure right when many investors were expecting a bullish move.
At the same time, analysts are talking about a potential $600+ billion liquidity boost from the U.S. Treasury. But history shows this may not give Bitcoin an immediate push. During the last major liquidity release, Bitcoin still fell first and only reacted much later, proving that liquidity alone doesn’t guarantee an instant rally.
Short-Term Bitcoin Holders Are Selling, Long-Term Holders Still Calm
Short-term Bitcoin holders are coming under heavy pressure as BTC has now dropped below their average break-even price for the first time in three years.
This group, which includes investors who bought Bitcoin anytime in the past week to one year, is facing losses, liquidations, and forced selling, making them the main source of market weakness right now.
In contrast, long-term holders who have held Bitcoin for more than a year are still comfortably in profit and showing no signs of panic. Their break-even zone remains around $60,000–$50,000, and until BTC dips into that range, the deeper capitulation normally seen at major market bottoms hasn’t started.
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Political Shift: Trump Team Aims to Influence Fed Decisions
A new political angle is also entering the market. Reports suggest the Trump administration is working to reshape the Federal Reserve by placing preferred candidates in key roles.
Their goal is to accelerate rate cuts and push stronger liquidity measures, possibly starting full-scale easing by early 2026.
This could be bullish for Bitcoin later, but it adds uncertainty right now.