Analyst Raoul Pal believes that the cryptocurrency industry is around “2017 Google” for Bitcoin and even earlier for Ethereum (ETH).
In 2017, Google (Alphabet) had already proven its dominance in search and digital advertising, but its full network potential was far from fully realized (cloud, AI, and so on).
Pal has implied that Bitcoin in 2025 is at a similar stage: the network is strong, adoption is accelerating, but the total potential is not yet fully captured.
Ethereum is even earlier in its lifecycle, meaning its network adoption and utility are less mature than Bitcoin’s. Hence, the “upside potential” is even greater.
“If it looks like a duck…”
According to Raoul Pal, Bitcoin and Ethereum behave like networked platforms. Just as Google, Meta, or Amazon generate value largely from the scale and interaction of their users, crypto’s value comes from its network effects.
“If it looks like a duck, quacks like a duck, it is probably a duck…” Pal said.
Metcalfe’s Law states that the value of a network grows roughly with the square of the number of users.
Pal argues that the primary driver of crypto value isn’t cash flow or profits, but adoption.
Hence, the more people use Bitcoin or Ethereum, the more valuable the network becomes.
Bitcoin has limited intrinsic cash flows (no company issuing dividends), but the network itself becomes exponentially more valuable depending on how many people adopt it as money, a store of value, or collateral.
The aforementioned companies are also network-driven. For Google, the value comes from its ecosystem of users, advertisers, and data. With Meta, the network effects stem from social media users.
The point is that these are platforms where the scale of the network drives the bulk of the value, not just profits or traditional balance sheets
Crypto fits this model “almost by definition”, so treating it like a traditional cash-flow business misses the core driver of value, according to Pal.