With the past couple of months being shaky for Bitcoin (BTC), prediction markets are not fully convinced that the flagship cryptocurrency is going to hit a new all-time high (ATH) by December 31.
Namely, data from crypto-based prediction market Polymarket as of December 9 suggests that just 1% of the individuals betting on the platform now believe that Bitcoin could climb to $130,000, surpassing the $126,000 ATH reached in October this year.
Interestingly, however, the 1% who believe it can hit a new peak have wagered nearly $10 million on the $130,000 price target. Also notable is that three times as many bets are on the Bitcoin price crashing to $65,000, a price not seen since October last year, although only $392,000 is on the line here.
The majority of the traders (61%) see Bitcoin climbing to $95,000 at best by the end of the year, but the betting volume is once again low, approaching $581,000.
The data suggests that some of the more bullish Bitcoin bet rates began to decline rapidly just before November, when the last rays of “Uptober” hope started to vanish.
For example, crypto markets set odds of Bitcoin claiming $130,000 at 56% on October 27, when they were only 8% lower than they were when the bets went live. By press time, however, they had plummeted to virtually negligible levels.
Bitcoin price outlook
Bitcoin is down nearly 2% on the daily chart at the time of writing, but it’s nonetheless holding above the $90,000 mark.
With the broader crypto market also down 1.85% ahead of the Federal Reserve decision tomorrow and “digital gold’s” weakening technicals, Polymarket bets look that much more reasonable.
The asset has slipped below its 30-day simple moving average (SMA) at $92,383 and was rejected at the 50% Fibonacci retracement level near $94,044, signaling weakening momentum.
Failure to reclaim $92,000 could confirm a bearish pennant pattern pointing toward an $86,000 target or even lower, to $80,000, the odds of which happening are 31%, as per the data reviewed above.
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