Fears that quantum computers could undermine Bitcoin’s security are unlikely to affect crypto markets in 2026, investment firm Grayscale said in a new report that dismissed the technology’s near-term risk.
In its 2026 Digital Asset Outlook, the asset manager called quantum computing a “red herring” for the year ahead, saying the technology posed a long-term cryptographic challenge but was not expected to influence the price of the crypto market in the coming year.
“We believe that research and preparedness will continue on post-quantum cryptography, but this issue is unlikely to affect valuations in the next year,” Grayscale analysts wrote.
The report echoed concerns of cryptographers who have long warned that a sufficiently powerful quantum computer could break public-key cryptography used to secure Bitcoin and other blockchains.
In such a scenario, researchers say an attacker could, in principle, derive private keys from publicly visible information.
“What a quantum computer could do, and this is what’s relevant to Bitcoin, is forge the digital signatures Bitcoin uses today,” Justin Thaler, research partner at Andreessen Horowitz and associate professor at Georgetown University, told Decrypt. “Someone with a quantum computer could authorize a transaction taking all the Bitcoin out of your accounts, or, however you want to think of it, when you did not authorize it. That’s the worry.”
While the report said research into post-quantum cryptography would continue and likely accelerate, a quantum computer capable of breaking Bitcoin’s cryptography was unlikely to exist before 2030 at the earliest.
Because of that timeline, Grayscale said quantum risk was unlikely to move crypto prices in 2026.
Grayscale has reason to tamp down concerns about quantum computing, as it has expanded exposure of the crypto market to retail and institutional investors through a growing lineup of crypto exchange-traded products, including funds tied to Dogecoin, XRP, and Chainlink that launched this year.
Grayscale’s report echoed the view held by many blockchain developers that timelines cited in DARPA’s quantum benchmarking work suggested cryptographically relevant quantum computers were still years away, rather than an imminent threat.