In his latest analysis of Bitcoin’s supply dynamics, cryptocurrency analyst Axel Adler noted that the market is still in the early stages of the macrocycle.
According to Adler, the return of Bitcoins, which have been dormant for a long time, to circulation provides striking signals on the supply side, but the majority of investors are not in a rush to sell.
Adler recalled two significant increases in supply volatility in past macrocycles: First, when Bitcoin rose to $70,000 in the spring of 2024, the percentage of coins activated within 180 days reached 20%. The second increase reached 18% in December 2024, when Bitcoin first surpassed the psychological threshold of $100,000. These movements indicated that long-dormant assets, known as “sleeper coins,” were being mobilized and redistributed into the market.
Adler noted that supply activity began to rise again after Bitcoin reached $100,000 again in June 2025, noting that this rate has shifted from negative territory to positive by 2.4% in the last 30 days. However, the fact that this increase is lower than past peaks suggests that there is still a significant “bullish buffer” in the market and that supply pressure remains limited, according to Adler.
Adler made the following assessment in his statement:
Essentially, a significant portion of investors are not yet ready to sell. Supply only began to revive at the start of the new rally. As the price consolidates above $120,000, the 30-day active supply ratio will first rise to the 8-10% range, then rise again to 18-20%. Once these levels are reached, the final distribution phase will begin.
*This is not investment advice.