Bitcoin’s hash rate is slipping, and history suggests the bottom may be in: VanEck

Bitcoin’s network hash rate dropped 4% over the last month, the steepest decline since April 2024. VanEck notes that negative hash rate growth has historically led to strong BTC rebounds over the following three to six months.

According to VanEck’s Patrick Bush and Matthew Sigel, the 30-day drop in hash rate reflects miner capitulation driven by deteriorating profitability, as higher-cost operators power down in response to post-halving revenue pressure, weaker Bitcoin prices, and power being reallocated toward higher-margin AI workloads.

VanEck’s analysis shows that Bitcoin tends to perform better after short-term drops in hash rate.

90-day forward BTC returns were positive 65% of the time, compared with 54% when the hash rate was rising. Over 180 days, negative 30-day hash rate growth corresponded with positive returns 77% of the time.

On average, Bitcoin has gained 72% over 180 days following periods when mining activity declined over 30 days, compared with 48% when activity increased, according to analysts.

Bitcoin was trading at about $88,000 at the time of reporting, down 1% in the last 24 hours, per CoinGecko.

Analysts are split on Bitcoin’s 2026 outlook, with a growing number forecasting a pullback to the $65,000 level.