Analyst Delivers No Good News: “Bitcoin (BTC) Has Completed Its Rise!” He Said, and Gave a Date for the Bottom!
2025 was a year of both great rises and sharp falls for Bitcoin (BTC). While Bitcoin reached many new all-time highs throughout the year, the last quarter saw a major crash.
After reaching its all-time high in October, BTC experienced a major crash, falling as low as the $80,000 mark.
This fuels predictions that a bear market has begun in Bitcoin, with the latest analysis coming from cryptocurrency analyst Ali Martinez.
The analyst, in their analysis from account X, noted that Bitcoin’s main cycles follow a similar pattern in terms of timing and decline.
Comparing the last three cycles based on quarterly price movements, the analyst noted that in past cycles, Bitcoin reached its next bull peak approximately 1,064 days after its low point.
In contrast, Bitcoin formed a bottom after undergoing a correction period of approximately 364 days from its peak.
The analyst noted that this timing and pattern have been repeated in previous cycles, indicating a high degree of accuracy for these timelines, and stated that the bottom of the current cycle is expected to occur around October 2026.
Applying the recurring cycle model to the current cycle, the analyst explained that the $126,000 level recorded in October of this year was the peak and that the time structure is valid.
Martinez noted that the time it takes to reach the trough from the peak is similar in both the 2017 and 2021 cycles, lasting approximately 364 days, and said, “If this pattern continues, Bitcoin is currently in a 364-day correction phase and could bottom out around October 2026.”
The analyst then compared past cycle data. Bitcoin fell 84.22% from its peak during the 2018 bear market, while it experienced a 77.57% drop in the 2022 market. Based on this data, the analyst assumed that Bitcoin would undergo a correction of approximately 70% in the current cycle, estimating that the potential bottom could be around $37,500.
*This is not investment advice.