This metric suggests bitcoin's late November plunge was the bottom and major upside lies ahead

As bitcoin BTC$94,178.02 tumbled in late November to nearly $80,000, the ratio between short-term holder supply in profit and short-term holder supply in loss fell to levels that have historically coincided with major or local bear market bottoms.

On Nov. 24, the ratio declined to 0.013. Each previous instance of the ratio reaching this level has marked either a local bottom or the definitive bear market low, including in 2011, 2015, 2018 and 2022, according to Glassnode data.

Glassnode defines short-term holders as investors who have held bitcoin for less than 155 days. At the November trough, the seven-day moving average of short-term holder supply in profit fell to approximately 30,000 BTC. In contrast, short-term holder supply in loss surged to 2.45 million BTC, the highest level since the FTX collapse in November 2022, when bitcoin bottomed near $15,000.

Since the start of 2026, bitcoin has rallied to about $94,000, a jump of over 7%. Over this period, short-term holder supply in loss has declined to 1.9 million BTC, while short-term holder supply in profit has rebounded sharply to 850,000 BTC — a ratio of roughly 0.45.

Historically, when the ratio approaches 1, it tends to move above it and continue expanding beyond that. The price of bitcoin tends to enter a sustained upside phase at the same time. With the ratio currently sitting below 0.5%, the metric suggests there remains room for significant further expansion before reaching equilibrium.

As for tops, they’ve tended not to occur until the ratio rises toward 100.