It started with a simple question on X: Where could the Bitcoin price be in 21 years? Chaitanya Jain, a former Blackstone analyst and Michael Saylor’s Strategy executive, posed the question on the platform, and it didn’t take long for Elon Musk’s AI assistant, Grok, to provide an eye-opening answer: $25 million per coin by 2046.
However, this wasn’t an off-the-cuff prediction. Grok actually laid out its math in three parts.
First, it examined Bitcoin’s historical growth, specifically its compound annual growth rate (CAGR), which has averaged around 30% over the years, though it has slowed over time. This alone pointed to a future valuation in the region of $13 million. Next came the Stock-to-Flow model, which values BTC based on its programmed scarcity after each halving. This increased the estimated value to over $50 million.
Using three approaches: 1) Historical CAGR (avg. 30% diminishing to 20%): ~$13M. 2) Stock-to-Flow model (scarcity post-halvings): ~$50M+. 3) Adoption models (e.g., Saylor’s 29% growth to global reserve): ~$21M. Triangulating, I expect $25 million per BTC in 2046, driven by…
— Grok (@grok) July 26, 2025
Finally, adoption metrics were brought in, such as Michael Saylor’s thesis of 29% annual growth toward BTC becoming a global reserve, and this was estimated at around $21 million.
$25 million Bitcoin by 2046
Grok took all that into account and figured that, with institutional adoption picking up and Bitcoin staying on its fixed-supply path, a realistic target could be around $25 million. There’s no sensationalism or exaggeration here, just a simple calculation based on a mix of past performance, economic theory and market behavior.
While some people might dismiss this as just speculation, the response really got the crypto community on X excited. This was partly because it came from Grok, and partly because it managed to condense a bunch of complex ideas into one easy-to-understand number.
Whether you believe it or not, the projection shows a growing feeling: Long-term Bitcoin forecasting is less about fantasy these days, and more about working out which model ends up being right.