The odds of the United States acquiring Greenland under President Donald Trump have surged to a new all-time high on the blockchain prediction platform Polymarket.
The probability of such a move before the end of 2026 has climbed to 15%, according to the latest data retrieved by Finbold on January 7.
The Polymarket contract “Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?” has seen heavy activity, with trading volume exceeding $2.28 million.
After holding between 6% and 8% through late December, the implied probability moved sharply higher in early January following a brief dip, rallying over several days to a record high.
Trump’s renewed focus on Greenland
Notably, the surge follows renewed focus on Greenland in U.S. strategic debates after President Trump confirmed his administration is considering taking control of the territory, including the possible use of military power on national security grounds, prompting traders to reassess scenarios previously viewed as unlikely.
Greenland’s strategic value stems from its Arctic location, access to transatlantic routes, and existing U.S. military presence, although Denmark and Greenland’s autonomous government have repeatedly rejected any transfer of sovereignty, underscoring significant legal and diplomatic obstacles.
Even so, Polymarket pricing suggests traders now see a materially higher chance of decisive U.S. action within 2026.
The rise in odds also reflects broader U.S. foreign policy moves signaling a more assertive stance abroad, leading markets to increasingly price in the possibility of multiple major territorial or administrative expansions in a single year.
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