Strategist Warns Crypto Oversupply Could Force $10K Bitcoin Reset

Bitcoin’s explosive rally may have gone too far, with oversupply, rising volatility risk, and shifting macro forces setting the stage for a major reset that could redefine crypto’s next cycle, according to a Bloomberg Intelligence outlook.

Bloomberg Intelligence: Oversupplied Crypto Markets Risk Major Bitcoin Repricing

Digital asset markets continue to face scrutiny as macro strategists debate supply, demand, and volatility risks. Bloomberg Intelligence senior commodity strategist Mike McGlone shared on social media platform X on Jan. 11 a crypto-focused outlook arguing that bitcoin and broader digital assets are oversupplied after a sharp run-up.

He stated:

“Cryptos are oversupplied and prices went up too much. A low-price cure may not come until $10,000 bitcoin, $50,000 initial 2026 support.”

“A top potential catalyst is some normalization in stock market volatility. Bitcoin is different — it was #1 crypto in 2009 and now there are millions,” McGlone added. The strategist framed the message around core market mechanics, emphasizing that supply, demand, and price ultimately govern long-term outcomes even for digital assets often portrayed as structurally unique.

He characterized the recent rally as a high-price cure already achieved, with elevated valuations encouraging excess issuance, leverage, and speculative participation across the crypto ecosystem. In his view, that imbalance leaves bitcoin vulnerable to further downside before a durable base emerges, particularly if equity market volatility begins to normalize and correlations between risk assets strengthen.

McGlone further expanded his outlook to 2026, writing:

“The bottom-line for 2026 is the US stock market has to go up about 10%, as widely expected, but is way overdue for some humility. Falling cryptos and crude vs. parabolic gold in 2025 may be a warning.”

The Bloomberg strategist has repeatedly outlined a broader 2026 framework centered on a bull market for volatility, arguing that years of suppressed risk in U.S. equities are likely to unwind and drive a great reversion across asset classes. Within that longer-running thesis, he has pointed to bitcoin’s failure to hold the $94,000 level and its struggle to maintain the 100-week moving average as signals that the speculative peak bubble of 2025 has burst. By comparing the S&P 500-to- gold ratio to its 1929 extreme, McGlone has projected a significant rotation into hard assets that could drain liquidity from crypto markets. Under that scenario, BTC could retrace toward a $50,000 pivot, with a deeper move toward a $10,000 floor possible if a recession triggers a 2008-style normalization.