Bitcoin Nears Breakdown or Bounce: What’s Next for BTC Price?

Bitcoin (BTC) is testing a key technical level after dropping from recent highs. At the time of writing, the asset trades near $93,000 with a 24-hour loss of 2%. Over the past seven days, it remains up by almost 3%.

After failing to hold above $95,000, the price declined by $3,000 within hours. This latest move places Bitcoin directly below its 50-week moving average, a level that has held as support throughout previous stages of the current cycle.

Weekly Support Comes Under Pressure

The 50-week moving average has served as a base for several price recoveries over the last year. Bitcoin’s return to this line, now from below, raises questions about whether it can hold or fail. Analyst Merlijn The Trader called the setup a “make-or-break moment.” He noted, “Reclaim and hold MA50. Continuation higher,” outlining the possible bullish scenario. If that fails, he warns of “more downside.”

BTC weekly: make-or-break moment.

Bitcoin is retesting the 50-week moving average.

This level has acted as support multiple times in this cycle.

Bull case:
Reclaim and hold MA50. Continuation higher.

Bear case:
Rejection at MA50. More downside. pic.twitter.com/iOgG64tHzH

— Merlijn The Trader (@MerlijnTrader) January 19, 2026

The current rejection near the $95,000 zone shows that the market is cautious. A close back above the moving average could help reset momentum. Without it, sellers may stay in control.

Despite short-term weakness, Bitcoin continues to trade above the 21-day moving average. This level has supported the recent trend of higher lows and shows that momentum is not entirely lost. Analyst Michaël van de Poppe pointed to rising concern around macro news but suggested that the trend has not broken.

“A lot of people are afraid… I don’t think you should,” he wrote on X.

Support is building near $90,000, and this zone could decide the next move. On the upside, the resistance band between $100,000 and $105,700 remains in play. Unless the asset breaks through that range with strong volume, upside moves may remain limited.

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BTC Price Reacts to Global Headlines

The move down came after news of new trade tariffs out of the US, which the markets responded to early in the futures session. Analyst Daan Crypto Trades noted,

“BTC moved straight down from the futures open when TradFi got a chance to react.”

He also pointed to the 4-hour 200EMA as short-term support. This decline shows how closely crypto markets are now tracking major global events. With uncertainty high, traders may wait to see how US equities react in the coming sessions.

Still, some analysts are pointing to positive signs beneath the surface. Long-term holders appear to be selling less.

“They’re clearly not selling like this is the top,” said on-chain observer Crypto Tice.

According to CryptoQuant’s COINDREAM, the recent bounce was not led by leverage, but by buying in the spot market. They explained that demand came first from spot traders before moving into futures. That shift points to early-stage accumulation rather than a short-lived rally.