Since 2026 started, Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading with much volatility, despite some attempts to climb back toward $100,000, with a downward bias.
The cryptocurrency’s latest turn was similarly bearish as BTC crashed 3% to $86,226 in the last 24 hours before partially retracing to land at $87,882 for a total one-day drop of 0.32%.
Through the market turmoil, many investors are considering the possibility that Bitcoin is, slowly yet decisively, moving toward its cycle bottom, with on-chain experts like Ali Martinez previously forecasting the lows will be hit sometime in October 2026.
Seeking additional clarity, Finbold consulted the advanced artificial intelligence (AI) of OpenAI’s flagship ChatGPT model about whether Bitcoin is on the path to $50,000 and when such a price target could be reached.
When will Bitcoin crash to $50,000
ChatGPT was quick to note that Bitcoin has indeed been on a downward trajectory and that it is trading 30% below the late 2025 highs near $125,000.
Additionally and interestingly, despite commenting that there has been ‘no sudden collapse yet,’ the AI not only confirmed that BTC is likely headed toward $50,000 but also forecasted that such a low price would arrive already in the spring of 2026.
Specifically, ChatGPT explained that it expects the world’s premier cryptocurrency to reach the target as soon as May 12, 2026.
Should the AI’s forecast be met, it would indicate a rapid collapse in the price of Bitcoin and see a 43% crash in just four months.
ChatGPT explains why BTC is likely to crash to $50,000
Elsewhere, OpenAI’s flagship large language model (LLM) explained that, on the one hand, its target is consistent with Bitcoin’s previous post-halving cycles that would see BTC first enjoy a substantial rally and then a large retracement.
Perhaps more notably, ChatGPT reflected on the cryptocurrency’s growing correlation with risk assets – arguably a very important factor given the geopolitical and economic instability prevailing at the start of 2026.
There is little doubt that the trends observable in Bitcoin’s performance support the AI’s reasoning.
Unlike other popular ‘safe-haven’ assets – Gold and Silver being chief among them – that have been reaching an all-time high (ATH) after ATH since 2026 started, BTC has largely been reacting to adverse news by plunging in value.
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