Bitcoin’s $BTC$78,621.47 11% slide last week may be the least of investors’ concerns. It’s a price of around $58,000, another 25% below current levels, they should be paying attention to.
While the largest cryptocurrency’s recent crash, the biggest weekly drop since March 2025, and inability to attract buyers has many holders worried about another so-called crypto winter, there’s still a painful journey before it reaches the possible silver lining that is the 200-week moving average (WMA).
The mean closing price of $BTC over the past 200 weeks is a widely used long-term momentum indicator and a baseline for the traditional-four year bitcoin cycle. It has marked a market bottom in every previous cycle, and is currently at $57,926.
Historically, bitcoin has often peaked in the fourth quarter of the fourth cycle year. This time round, it reached an all-time high of $126,000 in October and is currently down around 40% from that peak.
A further slide may be on the cards.
Last week’s drop took bitcoin below the Ichimoku Cloud, a technical indicator that gauges momentum, support and resistance. When the price holds above the cloud, that indicates a robust bullish trend, with strong upward momentum. When price falls below it, the market turns anemic, lacking strength and exposed to extended weakness, like a human body that’s short of iron.
Bitcoin just crossed below the cloud on the weekly chart, a bearish shift that’s historically signaled the start of the deepest and most painful bear-market phases.
It also appears to be broadly tracking the four-year cycle theory, driven by the halving schedule that cuts new supply by 50% roughly every four years and is partially the reason for the cyclical bull and bear markets.
In the 2015 bear market, bitcoin traded slightly above $200 and consistently used the 200-WMA as support. During the 2018-2019 bear market, the 200-WMA sat just above $3,000 and again acted as support, with a brief breakdown during the Covid-driven market crash in March 2020.
In the previous cycle, bitcoin fell below the 200-WMA in June 2022, to levels below $22,000, and remained there for an extended period. The price did not reclaim the 200-WMA line until October 2023, confirming its role as a long-term trend support line.
While there’s no guarantee, the recent price drop below the Ichimoku Cloud indicates another sustained bear-market phase may be imminent, but at least there’s a time-proven support level to provide some cheer.
UPDATE (Feb. 2, 16:55 UTC): Rewrites headline