Will MSTR stock price fall as Strategy’s BTC holdings slip into $900M unrealized loss?

MSTR stock price is under fresh pressure as Bitcoin’s slide below $75,000 pushes Strategy’s holdings into a $900 million unrealized loss.

Strategy’s growing unrealized Bitcoin loss is putting fresh focus on its stock, as investors weigh whether MSTR has more downside ahead or is nearing a point of stabilization.

Strategy Inc. shares are down about 61% over the past six months and were trading near $149.71 at press time. The stock dipped 0.27% in overnight trading on Sunday, following a 4.5% gain during Friday’s regular session, showing how fragile sentiment remains after months of selling.

Bitcoin’s slide weighs on Strategy’s equity exposure

Bitcoin’s ($BTC) move below $75,000 has pushed Strategy’s 712,647 $BTC holdings into an unrealized loss of more than $900 million, based on data tracked by Lookonchain. The company’s average purchase price is around $76,038, leaving its position slightly underwater after the latest leg lower in the market.

While the loss is not realized, it matters for Strategy because of how closely its stock is tied to Bitcoin’s price. A January filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission showed the company continues to rely on an at-the-market share sale program, along with other securities issuance, to fund Bitcoin purchases.

This structure cuts both ways. When Bitcoin rises, Strategy’s shares often move higher at a faster pace. When Bitcoin falls, the stock can drop even more sharply, as dilution risk increases and investors focus on how many bitcoins each share represents. That sensitivity has become more visible during the recent downturn.

Despite the drawdown, Strategy has shown no sign of changing course. Founder Michael Saylor has reiterated the company’s long-term commitment to Bitcoin, and analysts note there is no immediate risk of forced selling given the firm’s debt profile.

Will MSTR stock price fall further from here?

The ability of Bitcoin to maintain current levels will play a major role in MSTR’s next move. A deeper decline in Bitcoin could swiftly result in fresh pressure on Strategy’s stock if dilution concerns reappear. However, any Bitcoin stabilization could give the stock a stronger foundation following months of decline.

From a technical perspective, MSTR is still in a clear downward trend. The stock is trading below all major moving averages on the daily chart, and its price is close to the lower Bollinger Band.

This indicates that the downward momentum has been strong and may be stretching. The middle band, which is located between $165 and $170, still functions as dynamic resistance.

Although it has recovered from oversold readings, the relative strength index is still below the neutral 50 mark, hovering around 40. This implies that while momentum has not turned bullish, selling pressure has slightly subsided.

Bollinger Bands are starting to narrow, and volatility has also decreased in recent sessions. This increases the possibility of a sharp move in either direction and often signals a pause in the trend. The price is currently maintaining a short-term support range between $145 and $150. A daily close below that range would likely expose the stock to a move toward the low $130s.

Until MSTR can reclaim the mid-band and push RSI back above neutral, rallies may continue to attract sellers. Unless Bitcoin stages a more sustained recovery, Strategy’s stock is likely to remain volatile, with downside risks still present despite signs of short-term stabilization.