The crypto market is still in full panic mode. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index sits at 8 points—extreme fear territory—just barely above the all-time low of 5 hit on February 6.
But even in a sea of red, there’s some hopium for degens to breathe. The global crypto market cap ticked up 4.3% today to $2.36 trillion, but that’s a modest bounce considering that around $2 trillion have been wiped out in recent weeks.
On Myriad, a prediction market developed by Decrypt’s parent company Dastan, traders are pricing in 55% odds that Bitcoin touches $55,000 before recovering to $84,000. That’s not exactly a vote of confidence. Meanwhile, British multinational bank Standard Chartered slashed its Bitcoin target from $300,000 to the $100K zone, warning the coin could crash to $50K first. Bitcoin ETF outflows also shed $410 million yesterday, as traders show even the most bullish can panic when red candlesticks populate their charts.
Today’s CPI data release could decide whether this bounce extends or collapses. Analysts expect inflation at 2.5% year-over-year. A hot print sends Bitcoin toward $60K. A cool one might give bulls breathing room.
Bitcoin ($BTC) price: The bounce looks weak
Bitcoin rallied from $68,248 to an intraday high of $69,450 before settling around $69,321—up 3.69% in 24 hours. Not bad on the surface. But the bigger picture suggests you may want to keep your champagne on ice for a bit longer.
The Average Directional Index, or ADX, sits at 51.3, signaling a strong bearish trend. ADX measures trend strength regardless of direction—readings above 25 confirm a trending market, and above 50 means conviction.
This recent bounce may lower the ADX numbers a bit, but it doesn’t mean Bitcoin has magically turned bullish. It just means you cannot be permabear, and it’s reasonable to expect “FUD” or “FOMO” episodes inside of solid trends.
The Relative Strength Index, or RSI, is at 35.0, firmly in bearish territory. RSI measures momentum from 0 to 100, with below 30 suggesting oversold conditions and above 70 overbought. At 35, Bitcoin has bounced off the $60K lows but remains far from neutral (50). Traders typically wait for RSI to break above 50 before calling a momentum shift. We’re not there yet.
The 50-day Exponential Moving Average, or EMA, trades well below the 200-day EMA—a classic bearish setup. EMAs help identify trend direction using weighted price averages. When the short-term EMA sits below the long-term one, recent price action is weaker than the broader trend. That creates a bearish structure.
Overall, Bitcoin bulls need another February 6-style candlestick—but bigger. A good second option could be a series of green daily closes pushing above $80,000, which would signal bulls are back. Until then, this is more likely noise inside a downtrend.
The 4-hour chart offers slightly better conditions for day traders and quick leverage plays.
The 4-hour ADX sits at 20.6 (weak, no clear trend) which is good for traders placing positions as Bitcoin bounces around between established supports and resistances. RSI at 53.6 is also neutral, and the Squeeze Momentum Indicator is “on,” suggesting compression before a move. But with the daily trend bearish, any 4-hour rally likely hits resistance hard. If you’re swing trading or holding, the daily trend is your boss.
This bounce isn’t enough to signal a trend reversal. The daily chart shows strong bearish momentum (ADX 51.3), weak RSI (35.0), and bearish EMAs. The 4-hour chart might let day traders scalp a move to $70K-$72K, but swing traders and holders would likely be wise to remain cautious.