Bitcoin price today trades near $67,864, up 0.59% in the past 24 hours as the token attempts to extend its recovery from the $60,000 February low. The move comes as analyst Markus Thielen warns that the resilience of Bitcoin ETFs, which still hold $85 billion despite the crash, masks a harsh reality dominated by market makers and arbitrageurs rather than long-term believers.
Bitcoin ETFs Hold $85B But Ownership Tells Different Story
Despite Bitcoin dropping from above $126,000 in early October to nearly $60,000 in February, the 11 spot Bitcoin ETFs listed in the U.S. have registered just $8.5 billion in net outflows. These funds still hold $85 billion in assets, representing over 6% of Bitcoin’s supply.
Markus Thielen, founder of 10x Research, argues this resilience doesn’t reflect bullish conviction. Instead, it stems from market makers and arbitrageurs holding hedged, non-directional positions. “This reflects the structural nature of ETF ownership, which is dominated by market makers and arbitrage-focused hedge funds holding largely hedged positions,” Thielen wrote in a note to clients.
Thielen pointed to 13F filings showing that 55% to 75% of BlackRock’s IBIT ETF, which holds $61 billion, is owned by market makers and arbitrage-focused hedge funds who keep their bets hedged or neutral. These entities profit from bid-ask spreads and price differentials between spot and futures markets, not from directional Bitcoin price appreciation.
Market makers trimmed exposure by $1.6 billion to $2.4 billion during Q4 when Bitcoin traded near $88,000, reflecting “declining speculative demand and reduced arbitrage inventory requirements.” The data suggests ETF holdings are sticky not because institutions believe in higher prices, but because their business models require maintaining positions.
Open Interest Rises As Participation Returns
According to Coinglass, Bitcoin’s open interest increased 2.70% to $44.65 billion, while volume rose 1.11% to $51.65 billion. Options volume surged 56.13% to $3.75 billion, signaling traders are positioning for volatility. Long/short ratios remain elevated at 2.11 on Binance and 2.22 on OKX, showing leverage still skews bullish.
Top trader positioning shows $5.78 million in longs versus $3.19 million in shorts on 12-hour timeframes. The 24-hour rekt data shows $49.72 million in long liquidations versus $18.51 million in shorts, confirming the recent volatility trapped over-leveraged bulls.
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When open interest and options volume rise together, it typically indicates renewed interest in positioning around the next move. The sustained increase over recent sessions suggests accumulation is occurring at current levels despite the bearish analyst warnings.
Price Trapped Below Supertrend And Descending Trendline
On the daily chart, Bitcoin continues to trade below the Supertrend at $77,783 and well below the descending trendline from the October highs. Parabolic SAR sits at $62,238, marking critical support if price reverses lower from current levels.
The chart shows:
- Supertrend bearish at $77,783, confirming sellers control daily trend
- Price attempting to hold above $62,238 SAR support
- Descending trendline from October capping recovery attempts
- $60,000 psychological support as ultimate demand zone
Bitcoin tested the $60,000 level that Fidelity’s Jurrien Timmer called the cycle bottom, bouncing 13% from those lows to current levels. However, the structure remains corrective. Every rally since October has been rejected at lower highs, creating a clear pattern of distribution.
A daily close above $77,783 would flip the Supertrend and signal the first major shift in momentum. Until that happens, each bounce represents a relief rally inside a broader corrective phase. Breaking below $62,238 would flip the SAR bearish and expose the $60,000 psychological support.
Bollinger Bands Show Tight Range Compression
The 2-hour chart reveals Bitcoin trapped between Bollinger Bands at $66,963 (lower), $67,933 (middle), and $68,903 (upper). Chaikin Money Flow sits at -0.05, slightly negative but near neutral territory.
The structure shows:
- Tight Bollinger Band compression signaling low volatility
- Price oscillating around the middle band at $67,933
- CMF neutral, indicating balanced buying and selling pressure
The tight band compression typically precedes a significant move. When volatility contracts to this degree, it usually resolves with a breakout or breakdown. The direction will depend on whether buyers can push above $68,903 or sellers break below $66,963.
A breakout above $68,903 would expand the bands and place $70,000 back in range. A breakdown below $66,963 would trigger another leg down toward $65,000 and eventually retest the $62,238 SAR support.
Outlook: Will Bitcoin Go Up?
The next move depends on whether $BTC can hold $66,963 and break above $68,903.
- Bullish case: A close above $68,903 with volume would break the Bollinger compression and place $70,000 in range. Reclaiming $77,783 flips the Supertrend and confirms trend reversal.
- Bearish case: A breakdown below $66,963 exposes $65,000, with further downside toward $62,238 if the hedged ETF positioning unwinds. Losing $62,238 retests the $60,000 cycle bottom.
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