Exchange-traded fund issuers Bitwise and GraniteShares have filed with the US Securities and Exchange Commission to launch funds tied to event contracts on the outcome of US elections.
Bitwise filed a prospectus on Tuesday for a new lineup of ETFs branded as PredictionShares, with six prediction market-style ETFs on NYSE Arca.
The first two funds will pay out if either a Democrat or a Republican wins the U.S. presidential election in November 2028. The next two will pay out if either Democrats or Republicans win the Senate in November 2026, and the final two if either party wins the House.
“The fund’s investment objective is to provide capital appreciation to investors in the event that a member of the Democratic Party is the winner of the US Presidential election taking place on November 7, 2028,” read the prospectus.
Each fund invests at least 80% of its net assets in binary event contracts, or political prediction market derivatives traded on CFTC-regulated exchanges. These contracts settle at $1 if the referenced outcome occurs and $0 if it doesn’t.
“In the event that a member of the Democratic Party is not the winner of the 2028 Presidential election, the fund will lose substantially all of its value,” it explained.
Betting on a prediction market wrapped in an ETF
In essence, Bitwise is offering separate ETFs for each race — one for each party — and investors can choose which one to buy into.
The price of each fund’s shares on any given day reflects the market’s implied probability of that outcome, fluctuating between $0 and $1 based on polling, news, and sentiment.
ETF issuer GraniteShares also filed a prospectus on Tuesday offering six similar funds with the same structures based on US election outcomes.
“The financialization and ETF-ization of everything continues,” commented Bloomberg ETF analyst James Seyffart.
Not the first prediction market-style ETF filings
“This is not the first filing of this kind, and I think it’s extremely unlikely that these will be the last,” added Seyffart, in reference to the Roundhill filing for similar funds on Feb. 14.
The Roundhill prospectus also offers six prediction market-style ETFs based on the outcomes of the presidential, Senate, and House elections.