2 Indicators Turn Bullish for Bitcoin: What’s Next for BTC’s Price?

Bitcoin ($BTC) jumped from $68,000 to roughly $74,000 on March 4 to reach a new monthly high, as two distinct datasets flashed bullish signals nearly simultaneously.

On-chain data shows a sharp spike in Binance futures open interest delta coinciding with the price breakout, while U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have added approximately 23,600 $BTC to their holdings since February 25, pointing toward fresh institutional demand entering the market.

Derivatives Activity and ETF Inflows Increase

Market analyst Amr Taha wrote in a March 5 update that Bitcoin futures open interest expanded substantially on March 4, with Binance alone adding about $430 million in new positions. Other exchanges also posted sizeable increases, including Gate.io with roughly $189 million and Bybit with about $166 million.

The increase happened as Bitcoin flew to $74,000 to hit a new monthly peak. According to Taha, the overall rise in open interest across exchanges exceeded the peak recorded in January, pointing to the strongest derivatives expansion in nearly two months.

“The rise in OI Delta, particularly when it is led by Binance, usually suggests that new positions are entering the market,” Taha noted. “In other words, fresh liquidity appears to be flowing into derivatives.”

At the same time, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs accumulated about 23,600 $BTC between February 25 and March 5, according to the same dataset. The amount is worth around $1.5 billion at current prices and adds to ETF holdings that many traders use as a gauge of institutional demand.

“Historically, rising ETF demand tends to support bullish market conditions, as it introduces steady buy-side pressure into the market,” Taha pointed out.

Separate order-flow data shared by analyst Maartunn on X also pointed to large buyers entering the market. He wrote that the Coinbase premium gap widened to $61, meaning $BTC traded higher on Coinbase than on other exchanges. The metric often reflects demand from U.S. traders.

Price Rally Follows Rebound From Geopolitical-Driven Sell-Off

Bitcoin’s recent move continues a rebound that began after a sudden drop tied to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East.

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At the time of writing, the flagship cryptocurrency was trading near the $72,500 level after gaining nearly 6% in the last 24 hours and about the same over the past week. Despite the bounce, $BTC still sits more than 42% below its all-time high recorded in October 2025 when the asset went past $126,000.

Technical traders have also focused on the $71,700 level. Maartunn wrote that the market has reclaimed this range high, which could keep the current upward structure intact if the price holds above it.

Still, derivatives markets show rising leverage, with the analyst saying that Bitcoin derivatives added about $3.55 billion in new leveraged positions, an 18% increase, while Ethereum saw close to $1.8 billion in additional leverage.

According to him, these new positions require continued spot demand to remain stable, and if supportive bids slow down, overleveraged positioning can unwind quickly, increasing volatility. However, as it stands, Maartunn says institutional spot demand is supporting the move.