Will Bitcoin Recover or Crash to $40K Next? Analysts Can’t Agree

Bitcoin is climbing again, up over 7% this week. Whether that means the worst is over, or whether $40K is still ahead, depends entirely on who you ask. Right now, the market is deeply divided.

The Signal Bitcoin Bulls Are Watching

Crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe flagged something significant today. Bitcoin has hit a key resistance level, and while he doesn’t expect an immediate breakout, he called the short-term trend switch “the most vital trend switch we see since 10/10 has taken place.”

October 10 was the last point the market staged a meaningful directional shift, and van de Poppe sees the current setup as equally significant.

He expects consolidation before any sustained move higher, noting that things take time and a build-up is required.

Why Some Analysts Are Calling for $40K

Not everyone agrees.

Analyst @NoAlphaLimits issued a blunt warning: “$60K is NEXT. The bottom is $40-45K.”

His thesis is built on the Iran conflict’s ripple effects across global markets.

QatarEnergy has declared force majeure, the Strait of Hormuz has become active combat territory, and oil prices are spiking as a result. Rising energy costs are pushing inflation expectations higher, leaving the Federal Reserve with little room to cut rates.

Also Read: Crypto Crash Today: Should You Buy the Bitcoin Dip as US and Israel Strike Iran?

Even traditional safe-haven assets are cracking under the pressure – silver dropped over 11% on Tuesday, with gold also sliding more than 3%, suggesting investors are fleeing risk broadly rather than rotating into alternatives.

His most striking data point: “$2.3 billion in long positions sitting between $60K-$73K” – all of it, he argues, will get wiped.

What the Macro Picture Says

Blockchain advisor Anddy Lian offered the most grounded framework. His read: Bitcoin’s 89% correlation with the S&P 500 is the real story here. This is a macro beta trade, moving in lockstep with equities and rate expectations.

The Fear and Greed Index moved from 19 to 29 in just 24 hours – a meaningful sentiment shift, but still firmly in fear territory.

His critical zone to watch: $72,000-$74,000. As of today, Bitcoin is trading directly inside that range -making the next move from here the most telling signal of the week.

Also important to note that March 6’s Non-Farm Payrolls report could reset the entire outlook overnight.

Bitcoin Crash 2026: What Happens Next?

With geopolitical uncertainty driving volatility across every asset class, Bitcoin’s next move is unlikely to be decided by technicals alone. The Strait of Hormuz, oil prices, and the Fed’s response to rising inflation are the variables that matter most right now.

The NFP print is the first hard data point that could shift the outlook in either direction.

Stay tuned to Coinpedia for all crypto market updates.