Bitcoin staged a brief relief rally above $74,000 on Thursday, but it has already petered out as analysts predict a persistent bear market will keep momentum subdued.
“Bitcoin is still in a bear market despite the recent rally,” on-chain analytics company CryptoQuant said on Thursday.
The platform’s Bull Score Index, a composite indicator that measures the overall health of Bitcoin ($BTC) using a combination of fundamental and technical metrics, remains at 10 out of 100, “deep in bearish territory,” it said.
“Even after the recent price rally, fundamental and technical indicators still point to a bear market environment,” it stated.
“The current move is likely just a relief rally, not the start of a new bull phase.”
Bitcoin briefly tapped a one-month high of $74,000 on Coinbase on Thursday, touching the 50-day exponential moving average, according to TradingView. However, it has already lost more than $3,000, falling back below $71,000 during Friday morning trading.
Bitcoin still vulnerable to renewed downside pressure
Nick Ruck, the director of LVRG Research, told Cointelegraph that the crypto market’s recent relief rally came on “renewed risk appetite and ETF inflows,” but cautioned that the advance has “quickly faced headwinds with prices pulling back toward $71,000 amid persistent macro uncertainties and fading momentum.”
While the brief push provided a welcome relief rally amid supportive liquidity conditions, “ongoing bear market dynamics reinforce caution as softer macro signals, like the anticipated slowdown in February nonfarm payrolls, keep cryptocurrencies vulnerable to renewed downside pressure,” he said.
Bitcoin could see renewed buying interest
CryptoQuant said that a positive Coinbase Premium has signaled renewed US buying interest, driving the recent rally.
Related: Bitcoin slide slowing, but bear market still in play: Analysts
Bitcoin spot demand from US-based investors also switched from contraction to growth, as seen by the Coinbase Bitcoin Premium “switching from deeply negative territory in early February to the most positive since October,” they said.
Selling pressure from traders and long-term holders has also eased after unrealized losses reached levels not seen since July 2022.
Meanwhile, analysts at SwissBlock observed on Friday that “momentum is flashing a critical shift,” adding “We’re exiting peak negative momentum, the kind of transition that often precedes a regime change.”
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