Stock market volatility hits one-year high, possibly marking bitcoin bottom

The VIX and bitcoin often move in opposite directions, with sharp spikes in the volatility index frequently coinciding with bitcoin local bottoms.

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), which measures expected volatility in the S&P 500 based on options pricing and is widely viewed as Wall Street’s “fear gauge”, jumped to its highest level in nearly a year, rising above 35. The surge signals growing panic across traditional markets.

The move came as global markets reacted to a spike in oil prices. WTI crude briefly surged to around $120 when futures opened Sunday, before retreating toward $100. The volatility has weighed on traditional safe havens and equities alike, with both U.S. stocks and gold falling.

Bitcoin, however, has diverged from that trend. The largest cryptocurrency is up roughly 5% over the past 24 hours and trading above $69,000.

Historically, bitcoin tends to bottom when the VIX spikes. During the tariff-driven market turmoil in April 2025, bitcoin found support near $75,000 as the VIX surged to around 60. In August 2024, the unwind of the yen carry trade pushed the VIX above 64 while bitcoin dropped to roughly $49,000. A similar pattern emerged during the Silicon Valley Bank crisis in March 2023, when the VIX briefly rose above 30 and bitcoin hit a local low near $20,000.

Bitcoin’s own volatility gauge suggests the crypto market has already experienced its panic phase. The Bitcoin Volmex Implied Volatility Index (BVIV), which measures expected price swings derived from bitcoin options pricing, spiked above 96 in early February when bitcoin briefly fell to $60,000, the highest level since the yen carry trade turmoil in August 2024. BVIV is now back just above 60.

That divergence could indicate crypto markets front-ran the stress now hitting traditional finance, though a VIX near 30 suggests volatility in traditional markets may not be finished yet.