Shares of Circle (CRCL), the crypto firm behind the $USDC ($USDC) stablecoin, could add to their recent remarkable surge, according to analysts at brokerage Bernstein.
The team, led by Gautam Chhugani, rate the stock at outperform with a $190 price target, suggesting about 60% upside from current $120 level. And that’s after the stock rallied more than 100% in the past few weeks following an earnings beat, which likely triggered a short squeeze.
Bernstein’s thesis centers on stablecoin adoption increasingly diverging from the broader crypto market.
Circle’s $USDC supply briefly fell after the October liquidity shock in crypto markets but has since rebounded to just shy of its record $78 billion, even as bitcoin BTC$70,816.15 and the broader crypto markets remain well below its highs. The total market for U.S. dollar-backed stablecoins also remained steady at around $270 billion despite the crypto bear market, the report noted.
Transaction activity is accelerating as well, the report noted. Adjusted stablecoin volumes grew more than 90% year-over-year, while transaction velocity — a measure of how frequently tokens change hands — has increased, suggesting stablecoins are increasingly used beyond crypto trading.
Payments adoption is a key driver behind that, Bernstein said, as stablecoins are increasingly getting embedded with traditional card networks, enabling everyday transactions. Visa (V), for example, now supports more than 130 such stablecoin-linked cards across 50 countries, processing roughly $4.6 billion in annualized settlement volume, the report noted.
Circle is also expanding its Circle Payments Network, which allows institutions to send $USDC cross-border and convert it into local currencies through banking partners. The network now includes about 55 institutions, with annualized volumes reaching $5.7 billion earlier this year, the report said.
Looking ahead, Bernstein also highlighted a potential new growth theme: AI-driven “agentic finance.” As autonomous software agents increasingly transact online, stablecoins could become a natural payment rail for micropayments between machines, such as for API calls or automated services.
To support that vision, Circle is building a high-throughput, payments-focused blockchain called Arc, designed for fast, low-cost transactions.
Read more: Why Circle and Stripe (And Many Others) Are Launching Their Own Blockchains