Bitcoin Tests $74,000 as War-Driven Oil Frenzy Fuels $320 Billion Crypto Rally

Bitcoin ($BTC) surged to a 40-day high of $74,451, adding $1,800 in just 30 minutes as the US-Iran conflict continues to reshape risk asset flows.

The move liquidated $113 million in short positions within an hour. The broader crypto market has added over $320 billion since the conflict began in late February.

War, Oil, and a Shifting Risk Appetite Drive Bitcoin Towards $74,000 Again

As of this writing, Bitcoin was trading for $73,849 after an intra-day high of $74,451 on Monday, reclaiming levels last seen in early February.

The rally defied conventional expectations. Risk assets like $BTC have outperformed traditional safe havens such as gold and silver during an active military conflict, a dynamic that has surprised many traders.

Meanwhile, retail investors flooded into oil ETFs (exchange-traded funds). Trailing one-month purchases in pure-play oil ETFs reached a record $211 million on Thursday, according to analysts at the Kobeissi Letter. That figure surpassed the May 2020 peak of $200 million and tripled the 2022 high of $70 million.

Historically, oil shocks that did not lead to prolonged recessions preceded strong equity recoveries. The S&P 500 averaged a 24% gain in the 12 months following a two-day oil spike above 20%, according to Kobeissi data.

History of What Happens to Stocks After A Surge in Oil. Source: Phil Rosen

The only exception was 2008.

Not Everyone Is Bullish

Despite $BTC’s sharp bounce, Bitget CEO Gracy Chen cautioned that the bear market is not over.

“The bear market isn’t over yet, because liquidity hasn’t fully recovered. The $60K–$70K range is a good zone for dollar-cost averaging (DCA). But not necessarily the time to go ALL IN,” wrote Chen.

Chen’s target for full deployment sits at $50,000, though she acknowledged missing that entry remains a real possibility.

Adding to the tension, Coinglass flagged rising $BTC open interest alongside price increases, which mirrors patterns that preceded previous volatility spikes.

Whether this fuel ignites another leg up or a sharp reversal remains the central question for traders watching the $74,000 level.

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