Cryptocurrency analyst Joao Wedson said in his latest assessment that Bitcoin is nearing the end of the cycle for long-term investors, but argued that the bull market is not completely over yet.
According to Wedson, there could be at least two more months of upward movement for Bitcoin and three more months for altcoins.
Wedson noted that despite the growing influence of exchange-traded funds (ETFs), there has been a strong wave of distributions from long-term investors. These sales amount to 50% of all Bitcoin held in ETFs.
“Therefore, it would be a mistake to rely solely on ETFs, miners or individual groups,” Wedson said, adding that those who still influence the market the most are old investors and major exchanges.
Wedson, who included various on-chain indicators in his analysis, highlighted three key metrics:
- The last two years have seen significant increases in the movement of old BTC. This coincides with three major local peaks and serves as an effective indicator for identifying long-term investor sell-offs.
- Reserve Risk Indicator: This indicator, used to understand long-term investor behavior, has recently given a signal indicating increased selling and handover.
- SOPR Trend Signal: This metric, which analyzes all on-chain movements for profit or loss, issued a bearish signal a few weeks ago, warning of short positions ahead of the recent decline.
In concluding his statement, Wedson argued that the Bitcoin cycle is still valid and the existence of ETFs does not disrupt this cycle.
*This is not investment advice.