Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan said Circle could reach a valuation of roughly $75 billion by 2030, laying out a long-term framework that focuses on stablecoin adoption rather than short-term regulatory noise.
In his weekly memo, Hougan framed Circle’s value around three variables: the size of the stablecoin market, $USDC’s market share, and the company’s long-term margins. Using what he described as conservative assumptions, he modeled a $1.9 trillion stablecoin market by the end of the decade, with Circle maintaining a 25% share and generating a 0.8% margin after distribution costs.
That scenario would translate into approximately $3.8 billion in revenue and $2.7 billion in net income, which Hougan said could support a valuation near $75 billion using standard equity multiples.
The memo comes after Circle shares fell more than 20% on Tuesday. The drop followed reports that lawmakers are considering provisions in the CLARITY Act that could limit yield-like incentives on stablecoin balances. Those incentives have been a key driver of $USDC distribution through partners. As of Wednesday morning, the stock was up about 2% on the day, trading near $103.
Hougan did not directly comment on the price drop or the legislative details. Instead, he emphasized that stablecoin adoption is driven primarily by utility, including faster payments, global accessibility, and integration with financial systems, rather than yield.
He also pointed to Circle’s positioning in regulated markets, noting that $USDC holds roughly a quarter of the total stablecoin supply and a significantly larger share in compliant onshore markets. That positioning could become more valuable if regulation pushes capital toward regulated issuers.