$BTC is preparing to close March with a net loss, extending its losing streak. Historically, $BTC has never been in the red for three consecutive months at the start of a new year.
$BTC extended its losing streak, poised to close a six-month losing streak. After an eventual net loss in March, $BTC may go through the first six-month streak in the red since 2018. $BTC is down 24.42% in Q1, still within the usual range for a mature market.
Back in 2018, $BTC had its first dramatic crash of over 36% at the end of the year, extending the six-month streak between August 2018 and January 2019.
On the last day of March, $BTC traded at $66,784.54, remaining within the range from last week. Over the past month, $BTC briefly reclaimed the $75,000 range before crashing again, with no hope of recovering above $80,000 in the short term.
Why is $BTC extending its slide?
$BTC has usually been defiant, finding a period of hype to stage a recovery. The March performance was seen as breaking the losing streak that started in October 2025.
The first quarter came with much more complex geopolitical conditions. The US war against Iran and the stalemate in the Strait of Hormuz elevated oil prices and tested other assets.
$BTC recovered only after signs of an eventual resolution. The price sank as the Iran situation proved more complicated than expected, suggesting a longer military engagement.
The crypto fear and greed index also signaled extreme fear for an entire month, a sentiment not seen since the 2022 bear market. The period coincided with one of the most volatile months for oil prices.
$BTC has only a 1.09% net loss in March, but its price has shown that it is extremely fragile and reactive to bad news. At the same time, the asset still sees significant ETF inflows and continued purchases from Strategy.
Is $BTC preparing for a long bear market?
The current $BTC price levels signal $BTC may be oversold, with the potential for a rebound. $BTC is still in an accumulation zone, with some signs that whales have slowed down their selling.
A recovery or rally, however, is not immediately probable given the panic among derivative traders. $BTC is still seen as an investment with a high potential upside, betting on an overall market recovery. The coin is not behaving as a store of value, but rather as a speculative tool that captures higher upside when market conditions are right.
$BTC is down by more than 41% from its October peak, still a relatively small drawdown compared to the more volatile market in 2018-2019.
$BTC had strong downside protection in the options market at $66,000 and even $60,000. The current losing streak has led to predictions of an ongoing drawdown in April.