Bitcoin price volatility has sunk to historical lows with its price hovering about 2% off its all-time high, but QCP Capital analysts are warning investors to “beware the quiet.”
“Volatility may be on summer break, but Q3 and Q4 could still deliver fireworks,” the analysts wrote in a recent blog post.
The current low volatility is a sign that markets have priced in a Goldilocks scenario with delayed tariffs, rate cuts from the Federal Open Markets Committee later this year, and sustained fiscal deficits, the analysts wrote.
“While whales, OGs, and miners largely sidelined, Bitcoin remains just 2 to 3 percent below all-time highs,” they said. “This is supported by steady inflows from ETFs and public corporate treasuries.”
BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust, which trades on the Nasdaq under the IBIT ticker, has netted nearly $53 billion in inflows since its debut 18 months ago and just reached 700,306.7922 Bitcoin in its holdings. It has been the fastest-growing exchange-traded fund in the industry’s 32-year history.
That means that BlackRock holds 3.52% of the 19.8 million circulating supply of Bitcoin. And Jamie Elkaleh, chief marketing officer at Bitget Wallet, noted that the company’s iShares Ethereum Trust now holds 1.5% of all ETH.
“If ETF inflows continue, we could be entering the early stages of a structural supply squeeze,” he said. “That means less ETH circulating on the open market, more volatility, and stronger upward pressure on price.”
The QCP analysts also noted that equities are “extending their melt-up rally.”
At the time of writing, the S&P 500 was trading at $6,226.78—up 3.6% over the past month. And the Nasdaq 100 index has gained 4.2% over the same period. Both indexes have recently hit all-time highs.
QCP analysts also noted that “credit spreads are the tightest they’ve been since the March-April correction.” Credit spreads refer to the extra yield investors demand to hold riskier corporate bonds over safer government debt. For the spread to be especially narrow is a sign of investor confidence because they’re not demanding much compensation for the credit risk.
The real macro signal to watch will be whether President Donald Trump can get more trade deals signed before his new August 1 deadline. Risk assets, like Bitcoin, have largely taken the new tariff deadline in stride, QCP wrote, having come to expect blustery tariff rhetoric without action.
“Should Trump decide to follow through, however, the impact would be materially anti-growth,” the analysts said. “It would mark a true test for global risk resilience.”