In his latest report, cryptocurrency analyst Axel Adler evaluated Bitcoin and the general crypto market within the framework of macroeconomic developments, price momentum, and the options market.
According to Adler, external risks such as weak employment data and rising trade tariffs have reduced risk appetite in markets, leading to sharp corrections in Bitcoin.
According to Adler’s analysis, weak nonfarm payrolls (NFP) data released in the US, the Fed’s fifth consecutive interest rate cut, and a wave of new tariffs have driven investors to safe havens. Stocks have sold off during this period, and Bitcoin’s price has fallen from $119,000 to $112,000. Bitcoin’s 30-day momentum has fallen from 8.6% to 3%.
Despite increasing short-term market pressure, Adler notes that major companies, particularly Coinbase, Tether, and institutional strategy funds, have made approximately 30,000 BTC worth of new purchases. Coin outflows from exchanges also continue.
According to Adler, the $119,000 level remains a key resistance level, while the $112,000 level is currently a critical support area. A break above this level could lead to the price testing $110,000, while $108,000 acts as psychological support.
A decline in 30-day momentum to 3% indicates a significant weakening of the uptrend, according to Adler. A rebound above 8–10% could indicate buyers are re-entering the market.
The Maximum Loss price, which is the level at which the highest loss will occur in the Bitcoin options market, is at $118,000 for the expiration date of August 8, 2025.
The sharp decline in option selling volume at levels above $110,000 suggests that bearish positions are weakening, according to Adler.
Adler also outlined bull and bear scenarios for the BTC price:
- Bullish scenario: If the $118,000 level holds and call volume continues to increase, the price could test the $122,500–$125,000 range. A break above this level could bring targets of $130,000 and above to the forefront.
- Bearish scenario: If the $118,000 level is broken and the put option volume in the $112,500–$115,000 range exceeds $1 million, the price may pull back to the $110,000–$112,500 range.
*This is not investment advice.