The 4.5 signal: Why Glassnode’s RHODL ratio says the bitcoin bottom may be in

The RHODL ratio, by Glassnode, a key on-chain metric tracking the balance between long-term and short-term bitcoin holders, is flashing signals more consistent with a market bottom than a cycle top, after hitting a ratio of 4.5.

Currently sitting at its third highest level on record, the indicator shows that wealth is increasingly concentrated in older coins, as younger, more speculative holdings have been largely flushed out during the 50% correction in bitcoin over the past six months.

The ratio compares the value of coins held by longer-term investors, typically those holding for six months to three years, against coins held by short-term participants, defined as one day to three months. By measuring this balance, it offers insight into whether the market is dominated by seasoned holders or fresh demand from new entrants.

A rising ratio often reflects coins aging and a decline in speculative activity, rather than an influx of new buyers. This dynamic typically emerges after sharp corrections which can be seen in 2015, 2019 and 2022.

There are two occasions where the RHODL ratio has been higher than now, is 2015 (ratio of 5) and 2022 (ratio of 7), both cycle lows, which could suggest there is further downside for bitcoin.

However, pushing to even higher levels typically requires an even deeper collapse in short-term holder activity and near-complete demand exhaustion, conditions that are less evident today given the 25% price recovery from the February lows, negative perpetual funding rates and broader macro risk environment which has seen S&P 500 hit new all-time highs.