The current Bitcoin ($BTC) market cycle is “dramatically” weaker than the three previous cycles, according to Alex Thorn, the head of firmwide research at investment firm Galaxy.
Thorn compared price action since the April 2024 Bitcoin halving to cycles triggered in 2012, 2016 and 2020; the current cycle shows significantly dampened volatility and lower upside. The all-time high above $125,000 on Oct. 5, 2025 was only 97% above the 2024 halving price around $63,000.
$BTC’s price increased by about 9,294% during the 2012 halving cycle, reaching a high of about $1,163, and climbed by about 2,950% during the 2016 halving cycle, reaching a high of about $19,891. The 2020 halving saw a price increase of about 761%.
“Cycle four is dramatically underperforming prior cycles,” Thorn said in an X post, asking, “Is this the new normal, or is it the new normal until it isn’t?”
The decreasing volatility in each successive $BTC halving cycle suggests that traditional market dynamics are changing and that $BTC’s price may start to be influenced more by other factors, rather than the halving or the four-year cycle market theory.
The 30-day Bitcoin Volatility Index, which spiked to 9.64% on April 2, 2020, has not been above 3.11% in the current cycle, a reading last tipped on Aug. 24, 2024. At last look, the latest 30-day estimate for that volatility gauge is 1.75%, according to Bitbo data.
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Critics say current cycle performance ignores the premature all-time high before 2024’s halving
$BTC reached what was then the all-time high above the $70,000 level in March 2024 — one month before the April 2024 halving.
The approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in the United States in January 2024 was the primary catalyst for the price pump.
This historic anomaly of $BTC hitting a new all-time high before the halving skewed the current cycle’s price performance, critics of Thorn’s analysis said.
Bitcoin drawdowns have also become less severe, as volatility has declined, according to Fidelity Digital Assets.
Previous Bitcoin bear markets have seen declines between 80% and 90%, according to Zack Wainwright, a Fidelity Digital Assets research analyst.
However, Bitcoin’s crash to $60,000 from the all-time high above $125,000 represents a decline just north of 50%, Fidelity’s analysis noted.
In March, Jan van Eck, CEO of asset management company VanEck, said that $BTC is close to bottoming out and that he expects the price to begin gradually rising again in 2026.
At last look, the biggest crypto was trading at about $74,703, up almost 5% in the last seven days, according to TradingView data.
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