Market analyst Sunil Gurjal warns that Bitcoin’s recovery to $76,000 may be another price trap rather than the start of a lasting rally. In a post on X, Gurjal noted that retail investors are buying into the bounce, repeating the same mistake that burned traders in 2022.
The warning comes as Bitcoin continues to flash short-term recovery signals that Gurjal says have each preceded steep declines.
For context, Bitcoin trades at $77,462, a 0.9% decline in the past day after hovering around $78,000. Despite the short-term pullback, the asset has posted a 4.2% gain over the past week, extending its monthly run to 8.7%.
The Pattern Gurjal Is Watching
Gurjal identifies a cycle he says has played out three times already in 2026:
- February: A local price peak, then an 11% drop.
- March: A rally that appeared would set a new all-time high, followed by a 14% decline.
- April: A bounce to $76,000, he calls the next potential sell-off trigger
In sum, he describes the structure as ” fake breakout, reversal, dump of 10 to 14%, repeat.”
The 2022 Parallel
Gurjal linked this pattern to 2022, when Bitcoin fell 77% during the 2021–2022 bear market, bottoming near $16,000, following two major collapses. The Terra network imploded in May 2022 after its algorithmic stablecoin lost its dollar peg, triggering a market-wide sell-off.
FTX followed in November 2022, collapsing after revelations of financial misconduct involving Alameda Research, culminating in bankruptcy and criminal charges against its founder. That cycle also featured multiple false recoveries before the final bottom, the same structure Gurjal says is repeating now.
Specifically, according to Gurjal’s illustration, Bitcoin’s price could dip to $50,000. From the current price, this represents a potential drop of over 35% for $BTC.
Source: X
Meanwhile, this massive drawdown could form the foundation for the next bull market, as seen in 2022 when $BTC bottomed at $16,000. From there, Bitcoin’s price soared to above $75,000 even before the 2024 halving cycle. Although the price dipped later, it soon recovered, climbing to record levels above $126,000.
Looking Ahead for Bitcoin
Notably, industry leaders have projected that Bitcoin could still hit $100,000 this year and even set a new all-time high around $150,000.
Meanwhile, the next halving is expected in April 2028, cutting rewards to 1.5625 $BTC per block. If the same pattern continues, early gains may be slow, with stronger moves coming later. Investors could begin positioning well before the event.
Price predictions vary widely. Telegaon sees an average of around $343,750 for $BTC post-halving, while Changelly estimates it could be closer to $140,628 by late 2028. The overall idea is that Bitcoin’s price will be higher in the future than it is now.
Related: Bernstein Predicts $150K Bitcoin as Institutional Demand Grows
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