Crypto markets staged a modest intraday recovery on Thursday as traders digested a Big Tech earnings night that delivered roughly $650 billion in combined 2026 AI capex commitments and the most contested FOMC vote since 1992.
Bitcoin is changing hands at $76,420, up 1.2% on the day but still down 1.8% on the week, according to CoinGecko. Ether sits at $2,263, up 1.3% over 24 hours and off 2% on the week.
Total crypto market capitalization is back above $2.63 trillion, up 1.1% on the day.
Among the majors, Solana trades at $83, $XRP at $1.37, and BNB at $618. Dogecoin is the clear standout, up 3.9% on the day and 10% over seven days, making it the only Top 10 token to post gains on the weekly timeframe.
ETF Bid Withers
Despite the bounce in spot prices, the structural ETF demand that anchored Bitcoin’s mid-April recovery has now been negative for three consecutive sessions. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs posted $138 million in net outflows on April 29, according to SoSoValue.
Cumulative net inflows since launch sit at $58 billion, with total ETF net assets at $99.3 billion, equivalent to 6.55% of Bitcoin’s market cap. IBIT alone holds $61.11 billion, or 4.03% of all $BTC supply.
Spot Ethereum ETFs lost $88 million in the same session, their heaviest single-day bleed of the month. FETH led with $48.4 million in redemptions, followed by ETHA at $37 million.
$XRP funds were the lone bright spot, with $3.59 million in net inflows led by Bitwise $XRP and Franklin XRPZ. The flow picture extends a three-day risk reduction that began with Monday’s $263 million $BTC ETF outflow, which ended a nine-day inflow streak heading into the FOMC.
Hawkish Hold
Wednesday’s FOMC decision was on script for the rate path but a shock for forward guidance. The committee held the federal funds target range at 3.50% to 3.75%, but the 8-4 split was the most contested vote since October 1992.
Chair Jerome Powell, whose chairmanship expires May 15, said he will remain on the Board of Governors.
$650 Billion Capex Bill Hits Sentiment
The four hyperscalers that reported after Wednesday’s close all beat on revenue but tested investors’ patience on capital spending. Alphabet showed Q1 revenue of $109.9 billion, with Google Cloud up 63% to $20 billion and backlog at $462 billion. CFO Anat Ashkenazi raised 2026 capex guidance to $180 billion to $190 billion and said 2027 will “significantly increase” from there. Shares rose roughly 9% after-hours.
Meta lifted full-year 2026 capex guidance to $125 billion to $145 billion (from $115 billion to $135 billion), citing higher component pricing and added data center capacity. The stock fell 6%. Microsoft guided fourth-quarter capex above $40 billion, and CFO Amy Hood said the company expects to remain capacity-constrained through 2026.
Combined hyperscaler 2026 capex is now on track to exceed $650 billion.
What Traders Are Watching
Macro catalysts ahead include Apple’s earnings after Thursday’s close, the April nonfarm payrolls report on May 2, and any escalation in the Strait of Hormuz, which remains under a U.S. naval blockade following stalled U.S.-Iran peace talks.
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