Why Isn’t the Altcoin Season Here Yet? Keep an Eye on the Bitcoin Price in October 2026

Benjamin Cowen, one of the most respected technical analysis experts in the cryptocurrency world, painted a pessimistic but data-driven picture of Bitcoin’s future in his latest video. Cowen stated that Bitcoin’s correction phase following its peak of $126,000 in October 2025 is perfectly aligned with historical cycles.

One of the most striking points in Cowen’s analysis was the difference between this cycle and previous bull markets. According to the analyst, while the peaks in 2017 and 2021 came with great enthusiasm from individual investors, the 2025 peak occurred during a period of “indifference.” Cowen argues that this prevented the expected influx of money into the altcoin market, and that this is why the classic “altcoin season” did not happen.

Cowen, arguing that historical four-year cycles remain unbroken, reminded that Bitcoin typically bottoms out about a year after peaking. Based on current data, the analyst predicts October 2026 as the “most likely bottom time” for Bitcoin.

Cowen assessed the current price movements with the following words:

“We are in a period where bears appear smart and bulls are making money. However, the data tells us that we are in a bear market year. I don’t expect Bitcoin to hit a new all-time high (ATH) in 2026.”

Cowen stated that the risk persists as long as Bitcoin consolidates around the $70,000 level, adding that a drop to the $50,000-$55,000 range is a possibility. He specifically mentioned that a break below the $60,000 support level could lead to a “capitulation” phase, but these declines would also create opportunities for long-term accumulation.

*This is not investment advice.