Bitcoin vs Gold Debate Grows as Analyst Sees BTC Rotation Ahead

Bitcoin’s position against gold has returned to focus after Michaël van de Poppe compared both assets within the wider hard-asset market. He said Bitcoin held about 15% of the combined Bitcoin-gold market in 2024, while its share has now dropped to around 4%.

The analyst said the combined market has grown from $17 trillion to $35 trillion, leaving Bitcoin with a smaller slice despite the larger pool. Meanwhile, gold traders are watching resistance near $4,660 and $4,700 as rotation talk builds around the two assets.

Bitcoin Trails Gold Share

Michael van de Poppe said Bitcoin versus gold is now an important market comparison. His chart showed gold rising strongly against a blue Bitcoin-related line, while Bitcoin’s relative share moved lower after a long period of gold strength.

According to his post, Bitcoin controlled 15% of the combined hard-asset market in 2024. He added that the total market for Bitcoin and gold has since increased to $35 trillion, while Bitcoin’s share has fallen to about 4%.

Notably, van de Poppe said a return to a 15% share would place Bitcoin near $250,000 in the next cycle, if the combined market remains near $35 trillion. That figure depends on market-share rotation rather than a larger total hard-asset market.

He also said gold could fall by 20% to 30%, which would lower its market value. Under that setup, some capital could move toward Bitcoin if investors rotate out of gold after a peak.

Gold Levels Shape Setup

Gold’s short-term chart showed price trading near $4,642 after moving through a volatile range. The chart marked a support zone around the mid-$4,600 area and resistance just above current levels, keeping traders focused on near-term reaction points.

Allie, an analyst, said short positions could be attempted in batches around $4,660 and $4,700. She listed a 10-point stop-loss and targets of 30 to 50 points or more for those setups.

However, she also identified a long-entry zone around $4,550 with a smaller position. That setup carried a target of 30 points or more and a stop-loss range of 8 to 10 points.

The chart supports a cautious range view. Gold recently bounced from lower levels, reclaimed a support area, and moved back toward overhead resistance, but it has not cleared the upper band in a confirmed breakout.

Rotation View Meets Chart Risk

Van de Poppe said gold peaks have previously lined up with lower volatility and capital rotation toward Bitcoin. He added that Bitcoin’s major bull run often follows after money leaves gold, based on his reading of previous cycles.

Nevertheless, the current gold chart still shows active support and resistance levels rather than a completed reversal. A rejection around $4,660 or $4,700 would support a pullback scenario, while a clean break above that area would weaken the short setup.

Bitcoin’s side of the comparison depends on whether capital moves from gold into crypto markets. Van de Poppe said the halving is no longer the main driver and argued that Bitcoin has already ended a 14-month bear phase.

For now, the key market signal remains the Bitcoin-gold ratio. If gold weakens and Bitcoin gains share inside the $35 trillion hard-asset market, the rotation case strengthens, while sustained gold strength keeps Bitcoin’s share near current lows.

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