Bitcoin had closed the month of July at $115,000, an $8,000 jump from June’s close which is the highest monthly close in its history. According to analyst PlanB, this record-breaking move is right in line with his models, which suggest the market is in the middle of a slow and steady bull market with a long way to go.
On-Chain Data Supports BTC Bull Theory
According to on-chain metrics, the market is in the middle of a slow and steady bull market. Bitcoin’s current cycle has lasted longer than previous ones, already 18 months long and yet, is still rising. While past bull markets saw explosive price moves (like 100x in 2013 and 10x in 2017), the current cycle has “only” seen a 3x rise so far.
Based on his famous Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model, he said that Bitcoin could even hit an average of $500,000, with a wide possible range between $250,000 and $1 million.
So why isn’t the price higher, especially with big inflows from ETFs and companies like MicroStrategy? Plan B explained that many investors are moving their Bitcoin from self-custody into ETFs and public treasury firms. He’s done the same, partly for convenience and diversification.
Technical Indicators Turn Favourable
The technicals also point to more upside. The Relative Strength Index (RSI), a momentum indicator, is currently at 72.5, showing strong upward momentum. Plan B expects RSI to rise toward the 80+ range, a zone typical of stronger bull markets.
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Other indicators like moving averages and realized prices also support a bullish outlook. Bitcoin’s six-month realized price has just crossed $100,000 for the first time ever, and the average cost basis for Bitcoin holders is steadily rising.
What’s Next For BTC? (Short-Term)
The current Bitcoin price structure is a bit messy, but there is still potential for more upside in the short term. The important level to watch is $116,220.
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If Bitcoin can break above this, it could move toward $119,200, which is the upper boundary of the current trend channel. If that level is cleared, the next target is around $126,000.
However, experts still believe the recent dip may not be fully over, and they’re watching for confirmation. Overall, as long as Bitcoin holds its current support zones and continues this upward path, the outlook remains bullish.
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