A verified analyst at CryptoQuant, known as IT Tech, is pushing back against growing claims that Bitcoin has already bottomed.
He argues that the data still shows major resistance zones ahead of any true confirmation. The analyst said many traders are already calling a market bottom for Bitcoin, but on-chain data suggests the market still faces heavy overhead supply from underwater holders waiting to exit at break-even.
At the time of the analysis, Bitcoin was trading around $80,870.
Key Points
- Bitcoin analyst IT Tech says $BTC must reclaim and hold $88,880 to confirm a market bottom.
- On-chain data shows major resistance zones as underwater holders may sell at break-even levels.
- Bitcoin has rebounded over 37% since February’s $60K low, fueling fresh bottom-cycle claims.
- The Fear and Greed Index rose from 5 to 47, signaling improving sentiment across the crypto market.
The Bottom
Notably, supporters of the Bitcoin bottom narrative believe the $60,000 price level the asset reached in February marked the lowest point $BTC could fall to during this cycle.
For context, that decline represented a massive 52.5% drawdown from Bitcoin’s all-time high of $126,200. Since then, no new lows have been recorded, and the premier cryptocurrency has rebounded by more than 37%.
Given this recovery, market watchers have increasingly argued that the February low marked the cycle bottom.
Three Major Resistance Zones Above Bitcoin
Meanwhile, according to IT Tech, three important holder cohorts are currently sitting above Bitcoin’s spot price:
- 3-month to 6-month realized price: $88,880
- 12-month to 18-month realized price: $93,450
- 6-month to 12-month realized price: $111,850
These realized price levels represent the average cost basis of different groups of holders who bought Bitcoin during previous market periods.
The analyst explained that these levels now act as psychological and technical resistance zones because many trapped investors may choose to sell once the price returns to their entry point.
The heaviest concentration sits in the 6-month to 12-month cohort at $111,850, roughly 29% above Bitcoin’s current price.
Why $88.88K Is Critical
IT Tech argued that Bitcoin must decisively reclaim $88,880 before any bottom confirmation becomes credible.
According to the analyst, simply touching the level would not be enough. Bitcoin would need to break above it and hold the level successfully rather than wick through it and fall back below.
The reasoning is that reclaiming $88,880 would push the most recent underwater cohort back into profit, reducing immediate sell pressure from traders looking to exit at break-even.
Until that happens, the analyst warned that rallies into the $85,000 to $88,000 range could face strong selling pressure from buyers who entered the market late between November 2025 and February 2026.
“Bottom Calls Are Narratives”
The analyst ended the thread by cautioning traders against relying purely on sentiment-driven bottom calls. Instead, the analyst emphasized that market structure and holder data remain the more important signals.
As summarized in the post:
“Bottom calls are narratives. $88,880 reclaimed and held is data.”
Notably, the market Fear and Greed Index has moved into the neutral zone at 47, compared to 5 in February. This suggests improving sentiment and reflects a stabilizing market compared to the earlier fear of further losses.
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