Bernstein reiterates $67 Figure target after Q1 loan volumes double, sees 72% upside from tokenization thesis

Figure’s adjusted net revenue came in at $167 million in Q1, beating consensus by 6% and up 92% year-over-year. Adjusted EBITDA reached $82.7 million — approximately a 50% margin — edging past the $80 million consensus estimate.

GAAP diluted EPS of $0.18 missed estimates by 9%, driven by $26 million in stock-based compensation, down from $40 million in the fourth quarter of 2025.

Management guided Q2 loan volumes at $3.8 billion to $4.1 billion, roughly 35% above Q1. In a note to clients on Tuesday, Bernstein analysts led by Gautam Chhugani said the range was unsurprising given that April volumes alone reached approximately $1.34 billion, a monthly record for the company.

Figure Connect

The quarter’s most consequential structural data point was Figure Connect, the company’s blockchain-based credit origination marketplace.

The platform accounted for 56% of total loan volumes, up from 54% the prior quarter, as the distribution partner network grew to 387. New additions included Flagstar Bank, a top-35 U.S. bank by assets and the sixth-largest mortgage lender in the U.S.

Also, net take-rate held flat at 3.8% despite first-lien loan share rising to 20% of total volumes, a mix shift that would typically compress margins in a conventional lending business.

The Bernstein analysts argued that the Q1 print should force a reframing of how investors approach the stock. They described the results as “zero crypto beta, full tokenization upside.”

The firm said FIGR is better understood as a blockchain capital markets platform collecting platform fees, where Figure Connect’s rising share of volumes is the central driver of earnings via operating leverage. As such, Bernstein still values the stock at 25 times estimated 2027 EBITDA, a premium to traditional exchanges and crypto peers, which reflects that structural growth thesis.

Broader ecosystem metrics add weight to that framing, too. YLDS, Figure’s SEC-registered, yield-bearing security token backed by short-term Treasurys, hit $598 million in supply, up 80% quarter-over-quarter.

Democratized Prime matched balances, which redirect stock-lending economics to shareholders, reached $368 million, up 79% quarter-over-quarter.

Small business loans contributed $60 million in the quarter, their first meaningful period of activity. Figure is also expanding its product set beyond home equity loans into auto lending and additional mortgage categories, per the note.

Bernstein coverage

Bernstein has covered Figure since initiating at a $54 price target in October 2025, calling it the category leader with roughly 75% share of the tokenized private credit market, The Block previously reported.

The target was then raised to $72 in January 2026, when Bernstein named FIGR its top pick for the year, but revised to the current $67 in March 2026. Figure completed its IPO at $36 per share in September 2025, with a valuation surpassing $7 billion at listing.

FIGR shares traded at $38.97 Tuesday, down 4.6% year-to-date against an 8.3% gain in the S&P 500. The stock’s 52-week range runs from $25.01 to $78.00.

Bernstein and its affiliates have had recent investment banking and other business relationships with Figure and expect to seek additional compensation. Gautam Chhugani maintains long positions in various cryptocurrencies.