Bitcoin's long-term holder supply approaches record high, breaking multi-year downtrend

Bitcoin’s long-term holder (LTH) supply is approaching all-time highs. Currently, 16.3 million $BTC is held by this cohort, defined as investors who have held bitcoin for at least 155 days.

LTH supply has increased from 14.12 million $BTC around the time of bitcoin’s record high above $126,000 in October, to the current 16.3 million $BTC. In the past month alone, LTH supply has risen by roughly 200,000 $BTC.

The only other time LTH supply was higher was in January 2024, when it reached 16.4 million $BTC ahead of the U.S. spot bitcoin ETF launch, one of the most anticipated events in bitcoin’s history. In the months that followed, nearly 2 million $BTC was distributed by this cohort as bitcoin rallied.

Typically, during periods of price weakness or full bear market conditions, long-term holders, often viewed as the smarter money, begin increasing exposure after divesting during the previous bull market. During both the 2015 and 2019 bear markets, LTH supply increased as investors accumulated during price weakness.

However, since the ETF launch in January 2024, LTH supply has largely fluctuated between 14 million and 16 million $BTC. Now, it appears to have broken out of a 2.5-year downtrend, suggesting long-term holders are once again accumulating rather than distributing during bitcoin’s depressed price levels.