While optimism remains high for Bitcoin to break new peaks, a new analysis suggests the top may already be in, and the journey to $1 million could be delayed.
This outlook comes from a long-term Elliott Wave analysis by More Crypto Online. While he acknowledges that Bitcoin is on track to reach $1 million, the analyst believes this will happen in the next major market cycle following a significant correction expected after 2028.
Bitcoin Current Position According to Elliott Wave Theory
According to the analysis, Bitcoin’s current price action is showing signs of nearing a major local top. The forecast, built on the 1-week BTC chart, suggests Bitcoin is completing Wave 3 of a larger five-wave structure.
For context, Bitcoin reached $123,200 last month and has since pulled back to $111,943. It now trades above $116,000, but the analyst warns of a possible near-term dip, followed by a dramatic rise of up to 63% before the bullish phase concludes.
Severe Correction Into 2028
Following the projected peak, the analyst expects a deep Wave 4 correction that could last into 2028. Fibonacci retracement levels place this correction zone within $56,354 (38.2%), $44,083 (50%), $34,484 (61.8%), and $24,310 (78.6%).
In perspective, a retracement to $56,000 would represent a 51% decline from current levels. The more extreme target of $24,310 suggests a possible 79% crash.
Such steep corrections are not unprecedented. Bitcoin dropped from $69,000 in 2021 to $15,000 in 2022. This supports the analyst’s view that brutal retracements often precede new market cycles.
Final Parabolic Wave Could Push BTC Past $1 Million
After the correction, the analysis predicts Wave 5, the final leg of the Elliott cycle, could drive Bitcoin into its most explosive phase yet. The projected Fibonacci extension targets include:
- $332,000 (100%)
- $682,000 (123.6%)
- $1,059,000 (138%)
- $2.19 million (161.8%)
Essentially, the analysis argues that Bitcoin could reach $1 million or more, but in the early 2030s, once the next halving and bear market play out.
Counter Perspectives
While many in the crypto industry agree that Bitcoin could reach $1 million by 2030, not everyone supports the idea of a severe drawdown to $24,000.
Michael Saylor, for instance, recently stated that a “crypto winter is not coming back,” citing institutional demand. CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju has also suggested the traditional bull-bear cycle is broken, thanks to increased long-term holding and institutional inflows.
These counterpoints suggest that while temporary dips may occur, massive retracements like those in past cycles may not repeat, especially with large buyers now supporting the market.