Bitcoin remains under bearish pressure after a recent consolidation around the 100-day MA of $73K. The asset has now slightly broken below the MA. Upcoming price action will determine whether the recent pullback evolves into a leg deeper or forms a base for recovery.
Bitcoin Price Analysis: The Daily Chart
On the daily timeframe, $BTC continues to trade within a large ascending channel that has contained price action since the February lows. The 200-day MA, currently located around $80K, has acted as dynamic resistance throughout the recent decline.
Meanwhile, the 100-day MA is positioned near $73K and is now being tested as immediate support. Price is trading directly around this level, making it a pivotal area for the broader trend.
A daily stabilization below the 100-day MA could expose the lower channel boundary and the major demand zone around $70K-$71K. This region also aligns with a previously established order block, increasing its technical significance.
On the upside, any recovery attempt is likely to face resistance around $75K-$76K, where a supply zone has already triggered a strong rejection. Beyond that, the 200-day MA near $80K remains the key obstacle. A successful reclaim of this level would improve the medium-term structure and open the door toward the $87K-$90K resistance region.
$BTC/USDT 4-Hour Chart
The 4-hour timeframe highlights the loss of bullish momentum more clearly. $BTC has established a sequence of lower highs and lower lows after failing to sustain its breakout above $82K.
Price is currently consolidating within a narrow range between roughly $72.8K and $74.5K. This range is developing directly above the rising lower trendline of the broader channel, creating a crucial decision point for the market.
The short-term structure remains neutral to bearish as long as $BTC trades below the $75K-$76K supply zone. A breakout above this area could trigger a relief rally toward $78K and potentially $82K, where the next major liquidity cluster resides.
However, if sellers force a breakdown below the current range and the ascending trendline, the market could quickly rotate toward the higher-timeframe order block at $70K-$71K. Given the lack of significant support between these levels, a move into that zone could occur relatively fast.
For now, the market appears trapped between nearby support and overhead supply, with a likely expansion in volatility.
On-chain Analysis
The UTXO Realized Price Age Bands chart reveals an important development among short-term holders. Bitcoin is currently trading below the realized price of the 1M-3M cohort, which has risen steadily to approximately $73K-$74K.
Historically, this cohort has often served as a key gauge of sentiment. When price remains above the realized price of recent buyers, market participants tend to stay profitable, reducing immediate selling pressure. Conversely, sustained trading below this level can increase the probability of capitulation from weaker hands.
At the same time, the realized price of the 18M-2Y cohort continues to climb and currently sits near $70K. This level closely aligns with the major daily support zone and reinforces the importance of the $70K-$71K region as a potential accumulation zone.
Meanwhile, the older 3M-6M cohort remains significantly higher near $83K-$84K, reflecting the average cost basis of holders who accumulated during the previous advance. This level now represents a major overhead resistance area, aligning with the upper portion of the current trading range.
Taken together, the on-chain data suggests that Bitcoin is testing a critical short-term holder cost basis around $73K-$74K, while stronger long-term support continues to build near $70K. As long as the latter level remains intact, the broader market structure appears constructive despite the ongoing correction.
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