Bitcoin price stalls near $64K before key U.S. inflation data

Bitcoin recovered from last week’s fall toward $59,000 and briefly tested $64,156.

However, the rebound has not changed the wider downtrend. Bitcoin traded near $63,200 at the time of writing, according to crypto.news price data.

The market now faces two tests. Traders want stronger futures participation before treating the move as lasting. They are also waiting for U.S. inflation reports on June 10 and June 11.

Meanwhile, Bitcoin has stayed above $62,000 after buyers defended the $59,000 to $60,000 region. The recovery pushed the price toward $64,200, but sellers stopped the advance. This leaves $64,000 to $64,200 as the first barrier.

A close above $64,200 could force short sellers to exit and support a move toward $66,000. A drop below $62,000 could pressure leveraged longs and return attention to $60,000.

CPI and PPI data could decide Bitcoin’s next move

The Trading Economics calendar shows market consensus for annual CPI to rise to 4.2% in May from 3.8% in April. Its own model points to 4.0%. Reuters’ economist poll expects annual core inflation to reach 2.9%.

Producer prices will follow on June 11. Trading Economics lists a 6.4% consensus estimate for annual PPI, up from 6.0%, while its model projects 6.8%. Higher readings could support Treasury yields and reduce demand for risk assets.

The stronger May labor report has already changed rate expectations. The U.S. economy added 172,000 jobs, compared with forecasts of 85,000. The 10-year Treasury yield moved near 4.55%, while futures traders raised the odds of a Federal Reserve rate increase by December.

As previously reported by crypto.news, BNP Paribas expects three consecutive Fed rate hikes starting in December 2026. The bank cited firm employment, persistent inflation, and higher energy costs. Middle East conflict has kept oil prices elevated and added pressure to transport costs.

According to CNBC, President Donald Trump said an Iran agreement could be reached within “two or three days” and that the Strait of Hormuz would reopen “immediately” after a deal is signed.

Reopening the key shipping route could reduce pressure on oil prices and transport costs. However, no final agreement has been confirmed, leaving energy markets exposed to further changes in the conflict.

A cooler CPI report could help Bitcoin retest $64,200 and reduce pressure from bond yields. A hotter report could strengthen the dollar, lift rate expectations, and send Bitcoin back toward support.

RSI Supports a Bounce but Does Not Confirm a Bottom

Bitcoin’s relative strength index stands near 28.08, slightly above its moving average of 27.52. A reading below 30 normally marks oversold conditions. The indicator suggests selling may be stretched, which supports a short-term relief bounce.

However, an oversold RSI does not confirm a market bottom. Bitcoin needs to reclaim resistance and form higher lows before the structure improves. The Bollinger midpoint at $70,369 remains the larger recovery target.

Ash Crypto said Bitcoin fell 14% last week after leaving an ascending channel. He compared the structure with the 2022 bear market and focused on the weekly 200 moving average. “If the 200 WMA holds, $59,100 could be the cycle bottom,” he said.

The analyst also presented a weaker scenario. “If $BTC loses it, the next stop could be $50,000 or lower,” he said. He added that past death-cross periods produced corrections above 60%, which would place a deeper target near $39,000.

Ali Martinez offered a more constructive view. “Bitcoin is about to reach a market bottom,” he said. His data showed long-term holders distributed more than 50,000 $BTC, worth about $3.25 billion, while 54,000 $BTC moved onto exchanges over two weeks.

Those transfers increased available supply and may keep selling pressure elevated. As previously reported, Strategy provided some support by buying 1,550 $BTC for $101.3 million between June 1 and June 7. The purchase raised its holdings to 845,256 $BTC and its dollar reserve to $1 billion.

Bitcoin now needs to hold $62,000 and clear $64,200 to extend the rebound. Failure to defend the range would expose $60,000, $59,100, and the lower Bollinger Band near $58,325.