Bitcoin’s four-year rhythm is slipping. A new mix of investors and policy moves is changing how the market trades and when it moves. If that pattern breaks, timing entries gets trickier for everyone who watches Bitcoin’s cycles.
Matthew Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise Asset Management, said, “It’s not officially over until we see positive returns in 2026. But I think we will, so let’s say this: I think the 4-year cycle is over.” If he’s right, the old playbook needs a rewrite.
ETFs and early highs scramble the usual script
The cycle has been simple for years. A halving hits about every four years and cuts miner rewards by half. Supply growth slows. Only 21 million coins will ever exist.
Price usually climbs after the halving, tags a new high, then dumps 70%–80%. A “crypto winter” follows. Range. Then the next halving restarts it. The last halvings were May 2020 and April 2024.
This time, the price jumped first. Bitcoin set a record above $73,000 in March 2024, a month before the halving. Saksham Diwan, research analyst at CoinDesk Data, said, “In every previous cycle, new all-time highs came 12–18 months after the halving.” The difference was U.S. approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in January 2024. Those funds track Bitcoin without forcing buyers to hold coins. Flows were big and fast.
Saksham added, “This time, spot Bitcoin ETF demand essentially front-ran the typical post-halving price discovery. This was indeed the first clear indication that institutional flows could alter traditional cycle dynamics.” Bigger, stickier capital showed up and held positions longer.
Regulation changes, past blowups, and macro push the market off the old path
ETFs weren’t the only shove. Matthew pointed to past “blowups in crypto” that set up winters, citing the ICO crash in 2018 and the FTX collapse in 2022. He also flagged the macro turn.
“Interest rates are more likely to go down than up in the next year, and the fact that regulators and legislators are now willing to engage with crypto rather than steadfastly refusing to deal with it will dramatically reduce the risk of future blow-ups,” he said.
Under former SEC chair Gary Gensler, the agency filed several cases against crypto firms. Industry players said they were targeted. Under U.S. President Donald Trump, the SEC has dropped some cases. Washington is working on new crypto laws and has launched a Bitcoin strategic reserve. Public companies are adding coins to their balance sheets.
Ryan Chow, co-founder of Solv Protocol, said, “With increasing market maturity, long-term holder accumulation at all-time highs, and dampened volatility, the traditional 4-year rhythm is being replaced by more liquidity-sensitive, macro-correlated behavior.” That’s a clean break from the miner-driven script.
Where are we now? Historically, the biggest upside came 500–720 days after a halving. In 2016 and 2020, peaks landed in that window. Saksham said, “If this pattern were to repeat, then we should watch for potential acceleration between Q3 2025 and early Q1 2026,” and noted that “price action [in] this cycle has been notably subdued compared to previous post-halving periods.”
Matthew still says the cycle is done, but he wants a strong 2026 to seal it. “I don’t think we’ve repealed volatility, but I think a) the forces that have historically created the four-year cycle are weaker than they were in the past and b) there are other very strong forces moving on a different timeline that I think will overwhelm our four-year tendency.” Bitcoin printed a fresh record on July 14, pushing above $123,000.
Earlier cycles saw 70%–80% drawdowns after highs. Ryan said, “We believe the era of brutal 70–80% drawdowns is behind us.” The largest closing decline this cycle is about 26%, versus ~84% after 2017 and ~77% after 2021. He credited long-term holders and steady institutional inflows. He still expects 30%–50% pullbacks on macro or regulatory shocks, but sees them as shorter and less violent.
Matthew agreed on the direction, with a clear line on depth: “I bet 70% pullbacks are a thing of the past.”