Bitcoin may be approaching a valuation zone that has historically marked bear market bottoms.
However, on-chain data suggests the market has not yet experienced the level of seller exhaustion typically seen before a major recovery.
According to a recent CryptoQuant analysis, Bitcoin recently fell to a new bear market low of $59,000. That puts it just 9% above its realized price of $53,600.
The realized price reflects the average cost basis of all Bitcoin in circulation. Historically, it has acted as a floor during major bear market cycles.
CryptoQuant noted that previous bear markets ended when Bitcoin traded near or slightly below its realized price. This suggests the market is entering a zone where long-term bottoms have previously formed.
Bitcoin Demand Continues to Weaken
Despite Bitcoin’s attractive valuation, demand indicators remain weak. CryptoQuant reported that total Bitcoin demand fell by 652,000 $BTC over the past week. The metric combines speculative futures activity with apparent spot demand. According to the firm, this marks the largest demand contraction since January 2022.
Long-term spot demand is also deteriorating. CryptoQuant’s one-year apparent demand growth metric has turned negative and reached its weakest level since February 2024.
This suggests new buying activity is not strong enough to absorb available supply. While valuation metrics point to a potential floor, CryptoQuant said weak demand remains a major obstacle to confirming a market bottom.
ETF Demand Sees Record Decline
The report also highlighted a sharp reversal in spot Bitcoin ETF demand. According to CryptoQuant, ETF purchases are shrinking at the fastest pace since U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs launched in January 2024. The 30-day growth rate of ETF demand has dropped to its lowest reading on record.
Institutional investors have been a key driver of Bitcoin’s current market cycle. As a result, the shift from accumulation to net selling by ETF investors has become a significant headwind.
CryptoQuant described the current pace of ETF outflows as historically unusual. The trend suggests institutional demand has not only stalled but is actively declining.
Market Capitulation Has Not Happened Yet
Meanwhile, another important signal comes from realized losses. CryptoQuant said Bitcoin holders realized losses totaling 187,000 $BTC over the past 30 days. While the figure is substantial, it remains well below levels from previous capitulation events.
For comparison, investors realized losses of roughly 400,000 $BTC in February 2026 when Bitcoin first fell into the $60,000 range during the current bear market.
Losses were even larger after the FTX collapse. At that time, realized losses surged to around 1.2 million $BTC as Bitcoin established its cycle bottom.
According to CryptoQuant, major market bottoms typically form after panic selling reaches extreme levels and sellers become exhausted. Current data suggests that the stage has not yet arrived.
Floor is Near, But Not Confirmed Yet
CryptoQuant concluded that Bitcoin is approaching a valuation floor. However, the firm does not see enough evidence to confirm a cycle bottom.
Analysts believe a sustainable recovery will require several developments. These include stabilizing demand, a revival of ETF inflows, and a stronger capitulation signal from market participants.
Until then, CryptoQuant says investors should view the current price range as a historically attractive value zone rather than proof that Bitcoin’s bear market correction is over.
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