Several analysts are debating whether Bitcoin will revisit the $40,000 area before moving back above $100,000. Analyst Michael van de Poppe said the market consensus points to a bottom below $45,000 around October 2026.
His post highlighted that many traders expect a major low near that level. However, responses from traders showed skepticism. Some argued that markets rarely move exactly as the crowd expects, while others said a sub-$45,000 target may never arrive.
X trader KALEO took a more aggressive view. He believes Bitcoin could drop to around $40,000 before eventually returning to $100,000.
He said the current period resembles previous post-halving cycles and argued that patient buyers should continue accumulating. He compared the setup to the last cycle, when Bitcoin traded in the $20,000-$30,000 range before falling to $16,000 and later reaching new highs.
Cycle Chart Points to a Bottom in Late 2026
KALEO’s chart shows a similar structure to the previous four-year cycle. After the 2020 halving, Bitcoin spent roughly 932 days before reaching its next cycle low. The current cycle, which began with the April 2024 halving, is following a comparable timeline.
The analyst’s chart shows that we are around 935 days from the halving, placing a potential bottom in the second half of 2026. Based on this structure, KALEO expects a decline toward the $40,000 region before a sharp rebound that could push Bitcoin back above $100,000.
Holders Are Under Pressure But Not Capitulating
CryptoQuant analyst Joao Wedson said Bitcoin has registered the second-largest unrealized loss in history.
His chart shows unrealized loss of more than $250 billion while Bitcoin trades around $64,250. Large amounts of coins are underwater, but realized losses remain relatively low.
According to Wedson, this means holders are suffering on paper but are not selling in large numbers. Previous bear market bottoms often came after a wave of panic selling. However, the broad capitulation has not appeared yet.
Wedson warned that if realized losses suddenly rise, the market could enter a final and more aggressive cleansing phase. Until then, long-term holders are still keeping their coins.
Short Sellers Dominate Positioning
On the other hand, CoinGlass data shows a major imbalance in derivatives markets. There are more than seven times as many short positions as long positions.
The liquidation map shows cumulative short leverage rising sharply, with more than $20 billion worth of short positions concentrated higher. Long liquidation levels remain relatively small.
This setup creates conditions for a possible short squeeze if Bitcoin starts moving upward, as heavily leveraged bears could be forced to close positions.
Related: Bitcoin Has Not Reached Capitulation Yet, Says CryptoQuant Analyst
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