Next bull run will be slower, less volatile as investors' crypto appetite evolves, Bitwise CIO says

Any recovery in the crypto market is likely to take longer than traders expect because Wall Street investors and advisory firms are now focusing on real-world applications, such as tokenization, and artificial intelligence rather than straight digital assets, according to Matt Hougan, the chief investment officer of asset-management company Bitwise.

“We’ve lost the attention of investors to other hot trends,” most notably, for now, AI, Hougan said in an interview over email. “I think the coming bull market will be slower and less volatile [than] in the past.”

Even so, firms that advise high-net-worth individuals and institutional capital, known in the U.S. as registered investment advisors (RIAs), remain highly engaged with bitcoin BTC$64,115.53, the largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization, and crypto overall.

“Interest is as high as it’s ever been,” said Hougan, himself a long-time bitcoin bull. “I think that’s a very bullish long-term signal. … I think it’s going north of $1 million in the next 10 years. I have less certainty around how, when or if it has bottomed. I think we have to wait to see how the four-year cycle plays out.”

With multiple, often conflicting, signals identifying where the slide in bitcoin might end, the price remains almost 50% below the record high it hit in October. It’s down 26% this year, and the broader market gauge CoinDesk 20 Index (CD20) has lost 34%. Blockchains associated with tokenization, such as Stellar, have also been hit, though Stellar’s lumen (XLM) coin stands out with a gain of 8.9% this year.

Interest in stablecoins is also growing, and the combined market value of the tokens, whose value is pegged to a real-world asset like the dollar, recently hit a record high $322 billion. That’s more than the foreign exchange reserves of 95 countries, including several developed nations. The value could peak at $4 trillion by 2030, according to Citi projections.

As for pinning crypto’s decline on the traditional finance’s shift in emphasis, Hougan said that was not the main reason. He agrees, however, with other bitcoin maximalists — a group that believes bitcoin is the only cryptocurrency likely to achieve lasting global adoption and monetary relevance — that it’s at least contributing to the drop and is likely to slow any recovery.

“In bear markets, with doubts swirling, it’s easier for them to reach for something tangible. Stablecoins and tokenization are more tangible and ‘real-world’ to most people than bitcoin.”