Key takeaways
- Bitcoin remained under pressure after Iran announced that it would not permit inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to access its damaged nuclear facilities,
- The leading cryptocurrency has dropped to the $62,300 level, down 3.5% in the last 24 hours.
Bitcoin (BTC) continued to trade below the $63,000 level on Tuesday as mixed signals from the United States and Iran regarding nuclear negotiations kept geopolitical tensions elevated. At the same time, ongoing institutional selling and continued outflows from spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) limited the cryptocurrency’s upside potential despite diplomatic efforts.
Conflicting US-Iran signals weigh on market sentiment
Bitcoin remained under pressure after Iran announced that it would not permit inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to access its damaged nuclear facilities, raising fresh concerns about the progress of ongoing negotiations.
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei stated that no meeting had taken place between Iranian officials and IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi in Switzerland. The comments contradicted earlier remarks from US Vice President JD Vance, who suggested the talks included agreements related to IAEA inspections.
“There was no protocol for such inspections,” Baghaei said.
While US President Donald Trump and Vice President Vance have expressed optimism about the progress of nuclear discussions, Iranian officials maintain that no new commitments have been made. The conflicting narratives have renewed uncertainty surrounding negotiations between Washington and Tehran, encouraging investors to remain cautious and reducing appetite for risk assets such as cryptocurrencies.
Markets may also experience heightened volatility due to a major quarter-end portfolio rebalancing event.
Analysts at JPMorgan estimate that institutional investors could sell approximately $165 billion worth of equities while purchasing a similar amount of bonds before the end of the second quarter. Such a large-scale asset reallocation would represent the biggest shift in at least four years and could create significant volatility across multiple asset classes.
Institutional demand for Bitcoin continues to weaken as spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded additional outflows at the start of the week.
Data from CoinGlass shows that spot Bitcoin ETFs experienced net outflows of $68.30 million on Monday, following $226.84 million in withdrawals during the previous week. The latest figures mark the sixth consecutive week of net outflows.
Although Monday’s withdrawals were smaller than those recorded in recent weeks, the persistent trend continues to weigh on Bitcoin’s price outlook. Analysts warn that a further acceleration in outflows could trigger a deeper correction in the market.
Bitcoin price outlook: $64K remains key resistance
Bitcoin was trading near $62,350 at the time of writing, maintaining a bearish short-term outlook as the asset remains below several key Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs).
The cryptocurrency faced rejection at the important horizontal resistance level of $64,004 on Monday, highlighting the market’s inability to sustain upward momentum.
Technical indicators present a mixed picture. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) remains subdued near 34, signaling weak momentum.
However, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) histogram remains in positive territory, suggesting that selling pressure may be easing rather than accelerating.
On the upside, Bitcoin’s first major hurdle remains the $64,004 resistance level. A successful breakout could open the door for a move toward the 50-day EMA at $68,821 and the 100-day EMA at $71,922.
Beyond these levels, the 200-day EMA at $77,528 and the horizontal resistance zone near $84,410 represent significant medium-term barriers.
On the downside, traders are closely monitoring the psychological $60,000 level. A decisive daily close below this support could trigger a deeper corrective phase and increase downside risks in the near term.
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