Susquehanna flags SpaceX valuation risk despite $170 target

SpaceX stock has remained under pressure after Susquehanna initiated coverage with a $170 price target while warning that the company’s valuation depends on aggressive growth assumptions.

According to a research note from Susquehanna, the brokerage assigned SpaceX a neutral rating and set a $170 target for the stock as shares continue trading below their $150 debut price following a sharp post-listing rally and subsequent pullback.

The firm projects SpaceX revenue to grow at an 81% compound annual growth rate between 2025 and 2028, while adjusted EBITDA is expected to expand at a 76% CAGR during the same period. Even with those forecasts, Susquehanna cautioned that the stock’s current valuation requires premium multiples and leaves room for multiple outcomes as several of the company’s businesses operate in markets that remain relatively untested.

At current levels, the brokerage said it would prefer to wait for a more attractive entry point before becoming more constructive on the stock.

Analysts point to growth drivers but remain cautious

In its coverage report, Susquehanna highlighted four factors supporting the company’s long-term case. The first was SpaceX’s leading position in the rocket launch industry, which continues to provide a competitive advantage over rivals.

Beyond launch services, the analysts identified Starlink as a major source of future growth. The report also pointed to the company’s early-stage artificial intelligence initiatives and its ability to build large-scale AI infrastructure. Completing the list was CEO Elon Musk, whom Susquehanna described as a proven operator with a record of building and scaling businesses.

Even so, the brokerage argued that much of the expected growth may already be reflected in the current valuation.

As crypto.news reported, analysts at KeyBanc adopted a similar stance on Monday, initiating coverage of SpaceX with a neutral rating. The cautious outlook from both firms has emerged as the company reportedly seeks to raise up to $20 billion through its first bond offering.

Investor attention has also turned to how other high-profile private-market assets have traded after gaining broader access to retail participants. Anthropic pre-IPO futures, for example, have fallen as much as 9% since their Coinbase debut despite the artificial intelligence company announcing a partnership with Micron Technology. The decline suggested traders remained focused on future valuation risks rather than recent business developments.

Supply concerns add to pressure on shares

Elsewhere, economist Peter Schiff raised concerns about the stock’s future supply dynamics in a June 23 X post.

Schiff argued that the relatively small public float helped fuel SpaceX’s explosive first-day gains. However, he warned that the number of shares available for trading could increase substantially over time. According to Schiff, the float may expand from roughly 640 million shares to 7.5 billion shares by Dec. 8, representing an increase of nearly twelvefold.

“That’s a massive supply overhang for a stock priced for perfection and already falling.”

Despite those concerns, some institutional investors have continued adding exposure. As previously reported by crypto.news, ARK Invest purchased over 210,000 SpaceX shares worth nearly $32.5 million after the recent decline.

SpaceX stock fell below its $150 debut price earlier in the session before recovering. Data from Yahoo Finance showed that the shares changed hands around $158.40 at press time, up 2.4% on the day but still down more than 17% over the past five trading sessions.