Bitcoin analysts agree the Fed's hold was hawkish. They don't agree on what happens next.

The Fed held interest rates steady Wednesday, in a decision shadowed by unusual uncertainty after several prominent voices had called for a hike. Bitcoin $BTC$63,917.96 barely blinked, trading in a tight band around $64,000 through the decision and Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference.

Despite the calm, analysts appear divided on the post-Fed outlook for $BTC.

Some are calling the Fed’s decision the least favorable outcome for digital assets, while others are taking a more constructive view. Others emphasize that bitcoin’s outlook depends on what happens with other assets, with some saying the real test for bitcoin still lies ahead at the September Fed meeting.

Andrei Grachev, managing partner at DWF Labs, is worried about what Wednesday’s hold, delivered with a hawkish tone, signals about the Fed’s tolerance for pain.

The hawkishness wasn’t subtle. The Federal Open Market Committee held rates at 3.5%-3.75%, but three policymakers – Cleveland Fed president Beth Hammack, Minneapolis Fed president Neel Kashkari, and Dallas Fed president Lorie Logan – dissented in favor of a hike, pushing the decision through on a 9-3 vote. Warsh then opened his press conference saying “there is no soft inflation target,” reiterating that any inflation print above 2% is unacceptable to him.

“This is the Fed telling markets it will not tolerate inflation above target even at the cost of a growth scare,” Grachev said. “For digital assets, that’s the least favorable outcome on the table this cycle.”

His reasoning simple. “Tighter policy, less liquidity, [means] more expensive carry.” Tighter liquidity makes leveraged and carry-funded crypto positions more expensive to hold, which can pressure bitcoin’s price. Grachev expects the shift in positioning to happen immediately, not gradually. “Institutional positioning should shift defensive immediately, and risk-on assets will take the biggest hit, he said.

He gave bitcoin some credit for resilience so far, but not much comfort looking ahead: “Bitcoin has held up through a hawkish stretch already, but a fresh hawkish surprise would negatively impact prices.”

Can-Luca Köymen, investment strategist at Sygnum Bank, took a nearly opposite view, largely because he’d already priced in the hawkish hold.